The college basketball ecosystem is tumultuous to say the least, and every year we see and encourage the mass migration of high school kids into that ecosystem. Then we naively expect those individuals to immediately assimilate into that environment, building expectations far beyond what most players can achieve.
We see a select few players reach those expectations, and it strengthens our confidence in setting them in the first place. That’s why we struggle to appreciate players who don’t meet those expectations right away, doing ourselves a major disservice in the process.
I am of the opinion that both evaluators and players will be more successful when we let players set their own expectations and goals.
That’s why I want to talk about Riley Kugel and his journey through this college basketball ecosystem, because I believe that his journey up to this point doesn’t define him as a player or as an individual, and that this year he may very well meet those lofty expectations.
Player Profile:
Riley Kugel is a 6’5” and 210lb shooting guard from Orlando, Florida who has spent the past two seasons playing for the University of Florida and head coach Todd Golden. He spent his high school career playing for Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando. He led Dr. Phillips to a state championship in his junior season, and a state runner-up in his senior campaign. This successful prep career led Kugel to a four-star ranking nationally, making him a top 50 recruit in the class of 2022. He would eventually sign with the Mississippi State Bulldogs, but a pre-season coaching change would cause him to request out of his NLI which allowed him to commit to the Florida Gators.
In his freshman season with the Gators, Kugel would post averages of 9.9 points per game, 1 assist, 2.8 rebounds, .8 steals, and .2 blocks on shooting splits of 45.6% from the field, 37.6% from beyond the arc, and 66.3% from the free-throw line. These are respectable averages for a freshman who primarily came off the bench, but it was his final ten games that season that made him consider entering his name into the 2023 NBA Draft. In those games Kugel put up averages of 17.3 points per game, 1.3 assists, and 3.7 rebounds on shooting splits of 50.4% from the field, 43.9% from beyond the arc, and 65.8% from the free-throw line. This stellar finish to his freshman season would’ve seen him drafted had he declared that year and eventually earned him a pre-season All-SEC selection when he decided to stay in Florida for his sophomore campaign.
He started where he left off at the beginning of the 2023-24 season, averaging nearly 16 points per game in his first seven games, including outings of 23, 24, and 25 points. However, that stretch also saw him score 5 points twice on poor efficiency and limited minutes. This theme of inconsistency would haunt him throughout the season, and as the year progressed Kugel’s role on the team shrunk further and further. The off-season additions of multiple talented transfers left Kugel’s role in limbo, and eventually it was clear that this took a toll on him. Off the court issues saw him receive two DNPs near the end of the season, and after Florida’s disappointing loss in the NCAA tournament he announced that he was entering the transfer portal. He finished the season with averages of 9.2 points per game, 1.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and .2 blocks on shooting splits of 39.4% from the field, 31.2% from beyond the arc, and 69.6% from the free-throw line. He would eventually come full circle, once again committing to the Mississippi State Bulldogs and head coach Chris Jans.
Interior Scoring:
Kugel is an intriguing interior scorer, and by intriguing, I mean that I can’t exactly tell if he’s good at it or not. On one hand, he’s a hyper athletic slasher with a deep bag of moves that allow him to get to the rim whenever he pleases. On the other hand, he can seriously struggle with his finishing feel and consistently gets sped up on his way to the basket. That said, I am confident in his ability to maintain his strengths while building on his weaknesses, as what he struggles with are aspects of the game that most players figure out simply through experience. Going into his third season I expect that experience to show, and from a long-term perspective I expect him to be a solid interior scorer.
Kugel is at his best attacking the rim off the ball and in transition, but he can also go to work handling in the half-court. He’s excellent at utilizing both acceleration and deceleration to keep defenders guessing and to open driving lanes that were previously unavailable. He’s also fantastic at slowing his dribble down alongside his actual foot speed, effectively lulling defenders to sleep as he gains an offensive advantage. When he does decide to maintain a higher speed, you may see something like the second clip above. He has a vicious crossover that sets the table for his rim pressure, as he will use it to knock defenders off balance before using another one of his many dribble moves to finish the play. When he maintains his composure on drives like these, he’s an incredibly dangerous driver and at-the-rim finisher.
While he may possess the necessary handling abilities to be considered a primary ball handler, his game is at its best when he plays off the ball. His athleticism is his strongest physical tool, and he’s able to utilize it best when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands. His dynamic first-step and rampant acceleration allow him to blow past opponents when cutting to the basket, and when given this space he’s able to soar above the rim to find easy offense. I would argue that this is where he’s at his best as a finisher, which again is where I believe he struggles most as an interior scorer. That being the case, one could argue that his off-ball slashing is perhaps the most impactful aspect of his overall interior scoring game.
A strong transition game is a theme that you will notice is reoccurring throughout this write up, and that’s because Kugel is such a dynamic fast break player. We will cover other aspects of his transition game later, but for the time being I want to illustrate just how effective he is at applying rim pressure in the open floor. That all-around athletic prowess he displays off the ball in half court scenarios translates here, except he’s able to build even more speed and attack a clearer paint in fast break situations. This is where he thrives as a lob threat, which is something that his teams should take more advantage of considering his athletic abilities. Finally, this is where he seems most comfortable. While his off-ball finishing is similar to his transition finishing, he converts at a much better rate with the ball in his hands in the open court than he does in the half court.
All in all, a guy with this many physical attributes who can also handle the ball with the smoothness and sharpness of Kugel is going to be a solid around-the-rim finisher in the long run. I look forward to seeing him get more practice attacking with the ball in his hands this season, and I fully expect him to remain consistent as a high-level off-ball finisher going forward.
Mid-Range Game:
Seeing that Kugel is a solid example of a modern two-guard, it makes sense that he doesn’t rely a ton on mid-range scoring. He has a smooth stroke from this part of the floor, but obviously recognizes that his shots here are naturally less efficient than shots from beyond the arc or at the rim. That said, his ability to knock down jump shots here supplies flexibility for both his long and close range games. I believe that if he wanted to take more shots from this part of the floor that he not only could do so, but also would make them at a respectable rate. So, while I’m glad that he doesn’t put a ton of weight on this aspect of his game, it’s important to remember that he can punish opponents from here if asked to do so.
While I’m glad he’s capable of knocking down the turnaround jump shot, what I’m really focused on is the pull-up jumper. This shot is so incredibly important for building versatility, unpredictability, and three-level scoring acumen. This is the only mid-range shot (apart from maybe the floater depending on how you categorize it) that truly strengthens other aspects of a guard’s scoring arsenal. Kugel’s ability to knock these down when they’re given to him forces defenses to respect him from the perimeter all the way to the rim. If he’s incapable of creating and making these shots, he’s far easier to defend. Luckily for Kugel, that crossover we talked about earlier is so good that he can basically create this shot whenever he’d like. As long as that remains the case, he will be an efficient operator on these attempts.
Outside Shooting:
Despite an abysmal 31.2% from beyond the arc this season, I would still consider outside shooting to be the best aspect of Kugel’s game. I honestly believe that his season-long tribulations threw off his game entirely, including his long-range shooting. You can tell when you watch him play how good of a shooter he is, and we do have a season, his freshman year, where this was proven via the metrics. While he does have a smooth shooting motion and replicable mechanics, I think he relies most on confidence and comfort. I believe that’s why he struggled so much this season, because he was totally sapped of those two things by the coaching staff and his situation. I suspect those traits will return to him this season and we will see another year where he shoots near 40% from beyond the arc.
Considering that he’s primarily an off-ball agent, Kugel doesn’t take a ton of standard catch-and-shoot threes. Not because he can’t make them, but because he’s rarely standing still long enough for the opportunity to present itself. He’s constantly moving to create the best possible look for himself, a necessary trait if he wants his game to translate to the next level. As I mentioned earlier, while he may have a strong enough handle to act as a primary ball handler, he’s not a point guard and will spend more time operating in situations such as the two above. I do appreciate his ability to corral passes that aren’t where they should be and turn them into identical and replicable shots. This shooting pocket versatility makes him far more flexible based on his situation and will strengthen his percentage on tougher shots in the long run.
A ton of players struggle with shot creation on limited dribbles, but Kugel is not one of those players. He’s fantastic at creating open looks using one or two dribbles. He utilizes jab steps and body feints to create space without putting the ball on the floor, and when he does take a dribble it’s normally to trick the defender into thinking he’s not going to take the three. Much like his on-ball rim pressure, he does a great job of lulling defenders into a false sense of security before quickly shifting into his shot motion. This is a valuable skill at all levels of the game, and it’s something only real deep threats can consistently pull off.
While I am a fan of his off-ball and limited dribble shooting skills, it’s when he does put the ball on the floor when he looks his best. I do think he’s better fit for an off-ball role, especially at the next level, but plays like the two above are undoubtedly the most fun to watch. He’s able to use those acceleration and deceleration skills and combines them with a nasty array of handles to create a ton of space. While these shots may not be the most efficient, they surely pass the eye test and suggest that Kugel is a far more prolific outside shooter than his percentage this past season would lead you to believe.
Playmaking & Passing:
I believe playmaking is Kugel’s biggest swing skill as of today, and I have a feeling he’d agree with me. Why? Because while most of his other statistical categories worsened this year, his assist numbers got better. When studying his film, I could tell he was making a point to playmake for his teammates, something he was less concerned about as a freshman. He’s not a primary playmaker by any means, but I’m confident that he can be a very good secondary playmaking option. I expect him to continue growing in this department with Mississippi State, and by the time he declares for the draft I am confident that this part of his game will be a major talking point among evaluators.
Kugel’s most important trait from a passing perspective is his gravity. When he drives to the hoop, he often finds that the defense quickly collapses on him, leaving teammates open. Last season, Florida’s frontcourt rotation realized this and got very good at sealing off interior defenders when Kugel drove. This led to easy dump off passes like the ones you see above, and subsequent easy buckets at the rim. I highly doubt this skill is going anywhere anytime soon, as it seems that this gravity is completely naturally occurring (likely a testament to how opposing players view Kugel).
He has shown flashes of being a solid passer in the pick-and-roll, but it’s something I want to see more of from him before I can say he’s a trusted pick-and-roll ball handler. He doesn’t have to be prolific in this department, as he likely won’t be asked to run a ton of these as a secondary option. However, I would like to know that he is a versatile playmaker who can temporarily fill a primary role if asked to do so. I do think he has a good feel for lob placement and tends to put the ball in the right spot on over-the-top passes to the roller.
Much like his scoring, transition offense elevates his playmaking. The floor being open seems to do a ton of good for him as a passer, allowing him to throw passes such as the one you see above. This is where he’s at his flashiest, which I like to see because he relies so heavily on maintaining confidence. He’s a bit of an ego player, and throwing highlight passes such as these will make him perform better overall. Some could argue that that is a weakness, and I would tend to agree, but it’s also a trait that a lot of great players possess, and it can do some good in certain situations.
Defense:
I don’t know what to think about Kugel’s defense, but I think he could be an impactful defender in the long-term. His athleticism, length, speed, and feel for the game all suggest that he should be solid on this end of the floor, but he admittedly does deal with wavering effort levels. That said, when he does put his best foot forward, he can make a difference on this end of the court, and I think if he wants to make the leap to the professional level anytime soon, he’ll have to start making that effort more consistently.
Most of his steals are generated via jumping a passing lane, but I’ve noticed one thing that he does that a lot of players don’t think about: he allows his matchup to get into a position to receive a pass. He knows that his first step is fast enough to make up any ground that he allows himself to lose, so he holds off just long enough for the pass to be thrown before accelerating into the lane for a steal. These plays also often result in easy offense on the other end. He’s actively thinking about the game around him and how he can affect it defensively, and that’s a positive sign for his long-term outlook as a defender.
He’s not the type of player to come up with a ton of highlight blocks, but on occasion he can use his leaping ability and timing to deflect shot attempts. The first two clips above show him providing support for his teammate and coming up with a help block in the process. It’s the third clip that intrigues me, because no matter how many times I watch that play, I still have no idea how he got a hand on the ball. His back is totally turned from the shooter when the pass is made, yet he’s still able to turn around, run to the shooter, jump, and get a hand on the ball. It’s just another example of his elite acceleration, specifically how he can use it to his advantage on this end of the floor.
Rebounding:
Similar to his assist numbers, Kugel’s rebounding numbers also increased this past season despite his overall role shrinking. Why? Because he put more effort into making an impact on the boards. With his leaping abilities, there’s no reason why Kugel can’t be an above average rebounding guard, and we saw some flashes of that this season. I fully expect him to keep growing as a backcourt glass cleaner this season, which should go a long way to dispel arguments that he doesn’t put forth a consistent effort.
These two clips show both sides of the coin for Kugel, effort and natural abilities. The first example shows him crashing the glass on his own miss for the easy layup. The second shows him floating in the air for the easy put-back dunk. These two skills are all he really needs to be an above average rebounding guard, but if he were to add instinctual timing to the mix, I think he could be an elite rebounding guard. He’s not the strongest player in the world, so I doubt he’ll ever be great at fighting for boards on the ground, but if the ball is bouncing above the rim expect Kugel to go up and get it.
Summary:
Before I fully summarize Kugel’s game, I want to list out anything that I believe is currently a weakness of his. I always include this disclaimer because it’s an important one, but there’s nothing wrong with having flaws in your game. Every great player has struggled in some aspect of the sport, but what makes them great is that they constantly strived to improve on those flaws. That’s what players should practice when trying to elevate their game to the professional level.
Kugel struggles to maintain his composure in a myriad of ways. Both physically and mentally, he tends to break down over the course of a game when things aren’t going his way.
He gets sped up often when driving to the rim, specifically when met with more rim protection than he may have expected. He’s not the greatest at-the-rim finisher because of this.
He completely lacks a floater game or really any soft touch shot around the rim. This limits his unpredictability, making him easier to defend in the paint.
Increasing his volume of mid-range pull-up jump shots would go a long way toward bettering his numbers from both beyond the arc and at the rim. Right now, he’s hyper-focused on getting to the rim on his drives, but he should be mixing in more in-between work.
At times he can give himself a green light from deep even if his shot isn’t going in. Instead of forcing tougher shots I would rather see him work on constantly moving off-ball to find high efficiency catch-and-shoot opportunities.
He has consistently been a bad free-throw shooter throughout his first two seasons playing at the collegiate level. For a guy who attacks the rim as much a Kugel does, he must improve on his shooting from the charity stripe.
The lack of composure I’ve mentioned several times leads to him being turnover prone from a handling and passing perspective. There’s no reason for an off-ball shooter and slasher to average two turnovers per game.
His biggest weakness on defense is his engagement. When he’s locked in on what’s going on around him, he can be a very disruptive help defender, but a lot of times he spaces out or disengages.
I would like to see him get more reps as a primary point of attack defender. There’s no reason why a guy of his size with his athleticism can’t guard most backcourt players at the point-of-attack. The only excuse he has is a lack of strength.
I don’t want to speculate on any sort of attitude problems, but obviously there were off the court issues for Kugel this past season at Florida. That very well may have been the fault of the coaching staff, but it’s important to note that he may face problems off the court.
To summarize Riley Kugel, I would say he’s a story of stunted growth. His sophomore season was utterly wasted by a Florida coaching staff who couldn’t figure out how they wanted to utilize him or his teammates. That said, his confidence-based playstyle didn’t do him any favors, and he found himself basically forced into the transfer portal by the end of the season. He now moves to a team where even if he’s not the primary scorer, he can play a well-rounded role on both ends of the court.
Kugel has a fantastic foundation, a foundation that I trust to support his endeavors as a professional at some point down the road. For now, he needs to focus on polishing the areas of his game where he struggles by using that foundation to his advantage. He is naturally ahead of his peers because of his physical tools, and at this point it may just take a solid coaching staff to help elevate him from a skill perspective. He has everything that it takes to succeed at both the college and professional levels, he just needs to build consistency using those traits.
Kugel is a great example of a player who immediately passes the eye test. When you watch him play you have a hard time figuring out why he isn’t considered a pro-ready prospect already. It’s not until you check his stat sheet when you realize that he either hasn’t done much or has done so on poor efficiency. I can appreciate the eye test at the collegiate level, where the game is far more unpredictable and difficult to find consistency in. However, if Kugel wants to potentially get drafted and succeed in the NBA, he will have to find that consistency and efficiency somewhere.
This season is going to be nearly make or break for Kugel. You hate seeing guys of his athletic caliber spending too many years in college, wasting some of their physical prime. However, even if he’s not ready after this year, there’s a world where he steps into the spotlight for Mississippi State as a senior and shows that all he was really missing was the experience factor.