The Need For Long-Term Scouting
Scouting is a process. It takes time, forces evaluators to see the bigger picture and understand context. Hugo Gonzalez is the latest example of that.
As Spain beat Croatia in their final game in Tampere, a big sigh of relief - more than any commemoration - was felt throughout the whole arena. The mighty Spain had just avoided a never seen before relegation at the U18 EuroBasket, even if their 13th place was their worst ever. In the center of criticism was Hugo Gonzalez, an Adidas Next Generation MVP and a potential lottery pick. With a statistically below average performance in Finland, Hugo was still able to take over and save Spain in the first of two elimination games, but Spain should never have been in that position to begin with.
A big part of Hugo Gonzalez's struggles came from a big change in role, affecting his style of play. If you watched him up until last season and suddenly didn’t watch a single second of him in 2024, you’d describe him as an off-ball wing looking to attack off the catch, either by shooting or attacking the rim. But if you only watched Hugo this past season, your description would probably be much more geared towards a ball handling wing with some movement shooting potential, even if in the early stages. And honestly, you’d be correct in both assessments. And this sudden change in role and style of play for him, although really positive for his development - and that is the most important part when we’re talking about an 18-year old - was probably detrimental to the immediate perception of people who started watching him now.
You must be thinking: “well, the change in style couldn’t have been that drastic from one year to the other”. But as you can see in our exhibit A (a.k.a. the table above), it was. From barely playing as the handler in pick and roll actions, Hugo Gonzalez made that the biggest, most present part of his offensive game, especially when playing for Spain. And if it’s difficult to go from a more on-ball player to an off-ball one, imagine the opposite. It takes time to adapt, adjust and perform like the main guy you’re supposed to be. So let’s watch that transition.
If you’ve read my Nolan Traore piece, you already know the drill: first we watch the clip at full speed, then we check the nuances in slow motion or freeze frame. So, in the first clip we have a pick and roll play from last season, while the second is from this season, with the same kind of play but two different approaches. Last year, he was much more of a running layup finisher, using two steps and going up, making him much more vulnerable to contact and unbalanced finishes. While in the second clip, you can see a more composed attacker that goes for a quick one-time stop and launches himself toward the defender. This time, he’s the one looking for the contact, because he’s prepared for that and is the one that inputs the force in first.
In the third clip, he’s attacking from the middle, but quickly steers right to avoid the defender. Small strides and within the first touch from the defender, he’s unbalanced and getting away from the basket. While in the next clip, from the 2023/24 season, he’s attacking from left to right, using a longer stride (hello zero step) and tries to position himself in front of the defender and not letting the opposite happen. Again, he’s the one initiating the contact so he’s ready for it and as a result, the finish comes much closer to the rim.
Off to the fifth clip, with an introduction to pull up 3s off pick and rolls. Notice the body and feet position coming off the pick and the little hesitation dribble. This shows discomfort from a player who is not sure of what to do coming off the pick and roll and ends up taking a forced three with all the space given to him. The last clip, from last season, shows a much more prepared pick and roll attacker. He sees the show coming, but is not too aggressive, so the dribble that was going to be used to avoid that is now a progressive dribble, getting Hugo in position to go from there into a comfortable shot.
Also, did you notice that all three clips from the “new” Hugo Gonzalez are misses? If you didn’t, great. Because what’s important here and what I’m trying to convey is the process, not the outcome. That’s why I purposefully chose missed shots.
From the pick and roll, we move to his outside shot and how that also changed. His spot up opportunities have gone down in both the Adidas Next Generation Tournament and the U18 EuroBasket, as he became much less of a player waiting to attack off the catch and someone playing more with the ball in his hands but also coming into the ball. And while we’re there, his shooting motion has suffered a few changes as well.
While the dip after the catch is still there, as we can see in the video on the right (present), the motion is much quicker now, the ball doesn’t come back to his head as much as it did before (video on the left) and the release is now at the highest point and not while Hugo is still going up, like he did before. These are subtle changes, almost unrecognizable in real time and which may seem small. But all combined, having a quicker shot, turning it into more of a one-motion shot instead of a two-motion shot and shooting at a different height on his jump takes time to adjust but should produce results sooner or later.
One thing that affects the quickness of Hugo’s shot is the difference in how he goes into the shot and how much time he has to fire (more on that later). From a stationary shooter a year ago, Hugo Gonzalez has become a versatile shooter, leaning towards movement and off-the-dribble threes. The difference in volume is astounding from one season to the other, which explains the lack of development in his three-point shooting accuracy - it has been decreasing gradually since last season, as his shots become more difficult.
The first clip shows us a three-point shot coming off a pin down. Although this is considered a movement shot, the amount of time he takes to adjust after the catch makes it almost a stationary shot. While on the second and third clips, you see a player that has his feet ready before the catch, turning the shot into a fluid movement without much stoppage throughout. This takes away from the time he has to release and allows him to be quicker when pressured closely, which as we’ll see next, is already key for him.
The number of contested shots has also increased for Hugo Gonzalez and the difference is especially noticeable at the national team level, as he became more of a ball handler and shot creator and less of a play finisher. Most of his threes are coming off the dribble (pick and rolls mostly, with a defender always close) or off movement, with a defender chasing him, instead of someone bending the defense and finding Hugo open. And most of his twos are now inside shots, as defenders surround him after pick and rolls where the attention is all concentrated, opposed to the off-the-catch driving and closeout attacking from last season. Especially with a Spain team that lacked talent in some key spots, finding new ways to score and trying to guide his team to victory was a step that Hugo Gonzalez simply had to take.
To finish up, his playmaking game is not without growth. He has improved his numbers from last season’s ANGT and U18 Euro to this year’s while also keeping the turnovers at around the same amount (had more at the U18 Euro, where he saw more of the ball). And this doesn’t come at the expense of risk, as I would argue that his actions, with more on-ball repetitions and shot creation, have become riskier while a lot of his turnovers come from trying things instead of shying away from the responsibility.
Regarding his assists, the first and two clips do a good job of demonstrating how he was as a passer and how it fit into his game. A drive after the catch and a stop to read the play in the first clip. A quick curl and alley-oop in the second as soon as the attention turns to him.
In the third clip, Hugo is coming off a pick and roll, avoids the show and quickly attacks the paint. There’s already an advantage there but he creates a bigger one, forcing the back side defender to get completely in the paint before finding the shooter. In the fourth clip he’s posting up, trying to read where the help will come from. A quick body fake to trick his defender calls the help man to him. Waits for him to completely commit and finds the cutter. And in the fifth clip, a paint attack and yet again Hugo forcing the defense to go to him with an aggressive attack. Surveys the floor and waits just a fraction of a second for his teammate to gain a better passing angle and dish the ball to him.
There’s a difference in the way Hugo Gonzalez is feeding his teammates. From a player that made the first read he could see, he became a more patient player, looking to draw the defensive attention to him before finding a teammate, making their life a bit easier, enough to be noticeable.
More than a look at what Hugo Gonzalez is capable of doing right now, this is an exercise on trying to figure out development and how long term development is important. That’s also why I wanted to prove some points with a missed shot. All of this is a process and he’s not a ready-made player right now, far from it. Scouting and player development are gradual processes that take time and come with baggage.
He might not be this type of player once he gets to the NBA. His off-the-catch game is what got him to a high level now. But this development, forcing him to play out of his comfort zone and adding things to his game will be key for him. Instead of being a closeout attacker only, he might be able to rely on a secondary pick and roll action to shed off a defender and improve his reads off of that. Instead of sitting in the corner waiting for his shot, he will become a player that comes into the ball and forces the defense to pay attention to him. And the quickness that’s needed to be a movement shooter has already helped him become a quicker shooter off the catch. All of these skills will be important, even if the image you get from him at the moment puts some doubts in your head. Because more important than saying how a player is struggling or striving, is understanding why that is happening.