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Hey nic, love your posts. I don't really understand this mock draft at all (SECOND PART IN REPLIES)

Essengue in the top 3 is not happening. I'm extremely high on essengue, but he isn't a consistent shooter from 3, and he's a play finisher. I like his volume and willingness to shoot, but NBA teams right now are happy with letting him do that. 26.7 3P% this season (32/120) needs to climb into the low 30s fairly quickly. Figure dips to 24.7 3P% (21/85) in the German league. 72.2 FT% (197/273) is solid.

2023-24 season: 58.7 FT% (182/310) … 25.4 3P% (35/138 … 2.8 3PA, including 4.2 3PA in German Pro B)

2024 U18 Euros: 69.1 FT% (38/55) … 8.3 3P% (1/12 … 1.7 3PA)

2023 U18 Euros: 75 FT% (15/20) … 20 3P% (1/5 … 0.7 3PA)

He's improved as a shooter, but he's still not an average one, i like his development as a dribble pass and shoot guy though. His handle is loose in traffic, and he struggles to get by his man in the half court. Most of his drives come off the catch, not off the dribble, and most of his turnovers are due to his handle. He dosen't have a pull up, but probably dosen't need one. He's a good not great passer, and i felt like sometimes he felt too focused on being fouled, changing his angles a bit too much. He plays with extreme physicality which i like, but he still lacks strength and can get rushed. Struggles to score in the halfcourt. The things he does with ulm are experimental, and an NBA team won't let him do this early on in his career. He's fluid with the ball though. Defense, i have no concerns. You don't draft a player like him in the top 3.

I actually think VJ's swing skill is his finishing. His left hand is lacking, and he can switch to his right sometimes on the left side. He struggles to leverage his athleticsm at the basket. He lacks some soft touch from range, and missed some bunnies, and sometimes his elite body control worked against him, avoiding contact and struggles to finish against verticality. His tools should play a factor in this turning around, and the touch should (and needs) to get better. 53.8 FG% (91/169) at the rim this season. Goes down to 48.9% (43/88) in the half-court.

44.5% (57/128, 0.89 PPS) on lay-ups for the season, which drops to 44.2% (34/77) in the half-court.

I have questions about his shooting off the dribble, which he shot on low volume, sqaures his shoulders a bit too tight and has a pause on his stepbacks. But then again, this more for his ceiling than his floor. He's a bit too mechanical (Shot 20 3P% (6/30) on off-dribble threes and 31.8 FG% (7/22) on off-dribble twos). I would not be surprised if malauch goes above VJ, much safer pick while still having great upside (i can get into this if you ask me to.)

Ace bailey going 8 is not happening. He's 6 at worst (kon knueppel will not go before him) and at 6'9 with decent athleticism, and tough shotmaking in general, with defensive upside. A lot of development is needed, but the talent is too enticing to drop that far. The only reason he drops that far is because of the workout issues.

Noah penda at 7 (ahead of bailey) is not happening at all, either. There's questions about his gravity as a scorer at the nba level. If he makes 3s, it's on low volume, and he's not an elite athlete. As a driver, he lacks creativity unlike his passing, stays at one speed, dosen't counter, and a lot of his attempts are contested. He sometimes forces looks from distant takeoff points (28.6 eFG% on his scoring possessions as a driver this season). He's a top 20 guy, and most people in your mock draft in his range have a higher upside, and he just won't be going this high. If he shot falls off, it'll be hard for him to use the rest of his game, since defenders won't be drawn to him, and then, he won't be able to leverage his passing.

Rasheer fleming at 9 is unlikely, if not, probably not happening. He's a bit stuck between the 3 and 4, and maybe 5. He lacks any sort of handle, pull up, passing, or processing speed on offense, with no self creation. His shooting lacks a degree of versatility, but you don't draft him for these reasons. He's a 3-D that can hit shots and play great defense. However, he fouls too much, and has a tendency to dissappear, with his consitency being up and down. His shooting caliber is a swing factor, since he dosen't provide anything on offense except for that. Wouldn't be surprised if someone TAKES HIM after 11.

Tre johnson is going above rasheer, penda, and knuppel. He's not a 3 level scorer because of his lack of FTs and rim pressure, but he's a tough shotmaker from all over the floor, and the stats back it up, elite shooter with handle, and dating back to high school, he's made reads (some advanced ones) as a passer for u19 FIBA and link academy. kickouts, dump offs, some nice skips, and pocket passes in the PNR. His handle is very good, lack of burst can get him in trouble though. He offers better passing, handling, and shooting versatility and effiency, while having defensive tools that give you optimism (6'6, 6'10 wingspan).

Kaspras will probably go exactly where you said, but he's more of a volume shooter than an efficient shooter. He struggles to get to his spots in the half-court, and i feel as if he's better as an off guard rather than point guard. Him scaling up creates a number of issues, as he's EXTREMELY turnover prone as a passer (4 to 5 ATO ratio, and 25.4% turnover rate). He can get too fancy, and his accuracy as a passer can get shaky. He's not a good finisher in traffic, can't get by defenders, and is a bad defender. However, scaling down should be easier for jaku. That way, he can use his passing talents more effiectively without being exposed for his self creation weaknesses. He needs to maximize his pull up shooting for his outcome, since he won't be drafted to spot up, and he's not going to get to the rim at a high rate, so he needs to hit his OTD 3s in the PNR and agaisnt mismatches.

Croward at 14 isn't bad, but IMO i'd like to choose a more scaleable prospect with better volume. He needs to add more craft to his finishing (relied a lot on post ups, and he's going to start on the perimeter in the league, and clean up some of his drives) and tighten up his handle.

Kalkbrenner is not going in that range, at all. Prospects in that range have higher upside, and his passing is a mixed bag, sometimes he can make the simple reads, other times he plays too weak with the ball and gets overwhelmed by double teams, or throw a questionable pass, along with lacking strength. He's not switchable, but i like his 3pt. A bit too clunky and and robotic, and more effort and consitency is needed as a rebounder.

Sailis should've gone last year, but he's added a better 3 ball (it's not exactly good yet, average), but he needs to hit shots since he won't have the ball as often. His defense should be fine.

Egor demin at 34 is just crazy. Yes, his handle (needs improvement in a major way), shot, and assertiveness needs work, but he's a top 10 talent by far. He's an elite passer than can hit any read on planet earth, and he's a solid athlete that can get up with a runway. His shooting should come along, he's shot average in games before BYU. His volume was good, and despite relying on ball screens too much, he scored in them. He can be a grab and go threat, and when the shot comes along, then he can attack a closeout and make the right decision. He's not a non shooter, and there's flashes off the catch that are smooth. On defense, he can create events in the passing lanes, is big enough at 6'9.5 to not be a target on defense. Reads the floor decently. Covers some ground. Can move his feet, but somewhat upright. His defense isn't bad, but it isn't good. He's a wing whos an elite passer, feels comfortable on the ball despite the lack of handle, and can hit a shot. and he's 6'9. For reference, he's his previous shooting %'s - In 23 Liga EBA (2023-24) games: 36.3 3P% (49/135), 78 FT% (32/41) - 32% from 3 across all events (i couldn't put all of them here)

In 7 Spanish Championship (2023-24) games: 36.1 3P% (13/36), 100 FT% (12/12)

In 23 Liga EBA (2022-23) games: 40.1 3P% (61/152), 72.6 FT% (45/62)

In 6 2021-22 games with the Community of Madrid team: 36.7 3P% (11/30), 73.3 FT% (11/14)

Will riley at 35 is pushing it. He's a legit wing at 6'9 with a stop and start handle, fluid shot off catch and dribble, and a good not great passer. He can return top 10 value, and he plays physical despite his lack of strength. He's invisble on defense, worst defender in the draft, but you draft him with the future in mind. He's herky jerky, and despite his athletic limitations he can still get to the basket and finish with touch. He didn't lift weights growing up, and has not much flaws on offense. 60% FG at the rim in the half court, he's relentless and never stops going. Can chain moves together, though his lack of balance can lead him to loose on the ball sometimes. He's got deep range on his jumper, and can pull off hang dribbles, and make tough shots. His effiency was bad, but in the NBA he'll have the load off of him and can spot up or make an occosional move and score. He's fluid, and his release point, and form look smooth at his height, and he can convert in the mid range and 3 with soft touch, although the PERCENTAGES NEED TO GET BETTER. He's not an elite passer, but he's a good one. he can drive in the paint, dump it off, move it in the middle, make kickouts, and more importantly i feel like when he gets too deep that's when he starts to use his eyes to trick the defense, just whipping the ball behind him or in front for an easy layup. In the pick and roll, i'm confident in his projection. He can hit a basic pocket pass, immediately recognizes when he's being doubled and hits the open man. He's had some nice skips, too. He won't be asked to do much as a passer, so this shouldn't be too hard for him.

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