AJ Dybantsa to BYU is a Match Made in Heaven
Here's how BYU is already building their team and program to support the addition of the top high school recruit in the nation
The butterfly effect was first posed by mathematician Edward Norton Lorenz in 1972 as an extension of chaos theory. He described the butterfly effect as how specific initial conditions, or a small change, can result in significant changes in something’s later state. This theory would go on to be not-so-perfectly illustrated in the 2004 feature film of the same name starring Ashton Kutcher. Luckily for those of us who value contributions to scientific thought, the theory would be better illustrated in 2024 when AJ Dybantsa, the top ranked high school basketball recruit in the country, decided to take his talents to Brigham Young University. Allow me to explain.
The year is 1993, and Mark Pope is coming off his sophomore season as a starter for the Washington Huskies. The Nebraska born Pope attended high school in Washington and took home PAC-10 freshman of the year honors after his debut season with the Huskies. However, after his second season in Seattle he decided to take his talents to greener pastures. As we now know, Pope would eventually join the University of Kentucky, where he would sit out a year before playing two very successful seasons with the Wildcats. He captained a national championship winning roster in 1996 before going on to play six seasons in the NBA.
Fast forward nearly thirty years to March 21, 2024, as the BYU Cougars walk off the court following an upset loss to Duquesne in the first round of the NCAA tournament. This would be the last BYU game coached by no other than Mark Pope, who by this point had climbed his way through the college coaching tree to land in Provo. Another team was also upset in the first round that weekend, none other than the Kentucky Wildcats. A few weeks later, Pope and family would hop on a flight to Lexington, KY to accept the vacated head coaching position at his alma mater.
Meanwhile in Utah, BYU was hiring Phoenix Suns assistant coach Kevin Young to fill Pope’s vacated position. Just two months later, the top ranked high school player in the nation, AJ Dybantsa, would announce his move to Utah Prep in Hurricane, UT. Eight months later and Dybantsa announces his commitment to BYU, a university now featuring the most NBA-connected head coach in college basketball supported by the most NIL money in the country. Now, I’m not saying that the only reason why Dybantsa decided to take his talents to BYU was because an NBA journeyman transferred to Kentucky thirty years ago (I kind of am), but it definitely put the wheels in motion. With all of that said, let’s talk about what exactly Dybantsa’s time in Provo may look like before he eventually gets scooped up by the Utah Jazz (I kid...unless).
What Makes Dybantsa Special?
Before we dive into Dybantsa’s fit with BYU, it’s important to understand why he’s such a highly touted recruit in the first place. I’ve had the pleasure of watching him play in person a few times, in addition to hours of film consumption, so I feel like I have a decent grasp on his appeal. He’s a 6’9” and 210lb small forward with an absolutely elite skillset. He’s one of the best tough shot makers we’ve seen in high school basketball’s recent history, in addition to being a next-level athlete with a next-level motor. This motor makes for an intriguing defensive ceiling on top of his almost guaranteed high-end offensive outcome. His understanding of the game is something we don’t normally see from top-tier high school prospects swept up in the weight of their talents, which is what I believe separates him the most from his peers.
Offensively, he operates in a hybrid capacity, splitting his time on- and off-the-ball. When he’s away from the ball he’s an excellent mover who creates efficient offense as a catch-and-shoot threat or by applying rim pressure as a slasher, lob threat, and closeout punisher. On the ball, his handle is just good enough for him to create the space he needs to knock down tough shots from beyond the arc and in the mid-range. His most valuable on-ball trait may be his passing, though. He seems to always know where his teammates are and utilizes his otherworldly gravity and pinpoint passing to set them up for easy looks from everywhere on the court. Apart from a somewhat questionable handle and an inability to create a ton of space for his shots, he’s a relatively infallible offensive contributor.
On the defensive end, Dybantsa finds success by combining his elite athleticism with a remarkable motor. He’s capable of guarding two through four consistently but can also hold his own against point guards and centers for limited periods of time. He’s quick enough laterally to defend the point of attack, strong enough to stand his ground in the interior, and athletic enough to help protect the rim. He ties all of his physical traits together with elite defensive IQ and a feel for the game that is well beyond his years.
While he is only the best of the best in a few categories (tough shot making, motor, athleticism), he’s the most well-rounded recruit in his class by far. Because of the all-around nature of his game, I highly doubt he will struggle at the collegiate level. So, if we don’t have to worry about his ability to succeed when he gets to BYU, is there anything that could stunt his success?
BYU’s Basketball Ecosystem:
BYU is currently undergoing a test run for the Dybantsa experiment. This summer they made their first major addition in the age of NIL when they brought in Russian phenom Egor Demin. They added Demin, as well as fellow freshmen contributors Kanon Catchings and Mihailo Boskovic, to an already experienced roster. Thus far, the Demin experiment has been a major success, with the Cougars having only one bad loss through their first ten games of the season. That said, the only likely departures after the season will be Demin to the draft and a handful of role players to graduation. It looks like BYU plans to surround Dybantsa with a very solid supporting cast, headlined by a few notable names.
As I mentioned, Kanon Catchings and Mihailo Boskovic were the other two big names to enroll at BYU for their freshmen campaigns. While Catchings could still improve this season and eventually declare for the draft, as of today I would expect him to return for his sophomore season. The same can be said for Boskovic, although I highly doubt he makes a draft-worthy leap. Both Catchings and Boskovic play ancillary roles and will fit well alongside Dybantsa next season. If one or both of Elijah Crawford and Brody Kozlowski, two current freshman who are outside of the rotation, can make a leap for their sophomore campaign, that adds even more young depth to this team.
The upperclassmen who will be suiting up with Dybantsa next season make up one of the better supporting casts in all of college basketball. Richie Saunders is a very good college player, and someone who BYU can rely on as a veteran leader in the locker room. He has played excellently this season alongside Demin, so we can only assume that he will continue to thrive next year with even more star power. Dawson Baker and Dallin Hall are also capable role-playing guards. Keba Keita is an athletic option in the frontcourt who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to make an impact on the game. All in all, BYU has a strong group of experienced role players who are willing to take a back seat to a lottery talent, and they’re proving that true this season with Demin.
Finally, Dybantsa isn’t the only talented freshman joining the Cougars next season. Xavion Staton, a four-star 6’10” center, is heading to Provo next season to add more depth at the five spot. Chamberlain Burgess, a talented four-star power forward, is a hidden gem who likely won’t have the biggest role next season but will offer valuable minutes when he does play. Together, they will strengthen the BYU front court that currently isn’t the strongest aspect of the team. The Cougars’ strategic recruitment perfectly supports Dybantsa’s addition to the program, and who knows, they may add more recruits in the coming months.
Starting Lineup & Rotation:
Time for the good stuff; let’s look at what BYU’s starting lineup and overall rotation may look like next season. I’m under the assumption that the school wants to heavily highlight Dybantsa, so I’m building this hypothetical lineup to best showcase his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.
Dallin Hall will start at point guard. He and Crawford are the only real point guards on the roster, so his spot at the one is more or less locked in. Richie Saunders will start at the two-guard spot. He’s playing the three this season, but either Dybantsa or Catchings will take that spot next season. Saunders is a 40% three-point shooter, meaning he’s just good enough from beyond the arc to fit well alongside a kickout passer like Dybantsa. I actually think Catchings will play the three and Dybantsa will play the four, considering that Dybantsa can better defend power forwards while punishing big men on the perimeter on the other end. Catchings isn’t shooting well this season, but he’s attempting over six outside shots per game and I’m of the belief that they’ll start falling next season with the help of Dybantsa’s gravity. The center position is where I’m not 100% sure. None of Keita, Boskovic, or Staton are particularly good at shooting the three, which is the most important trait for a player playing alongside Dybantsa. I personally would start Staton for his rim protection, but I could see a world where they go small and start a player like Burgess at the five for floor spacing purposes. That said, I’ll work under the assumption that Staton starts, which leaves us with a starting lineup of Hall, Saunders, Catchings, Dybantsa, and Staton.
The rest of the rotation will include Baker and Crawford in the backcourt, Burgess and Kozlowski as backup wings, and Keita and Boskovic in the frontcourt. That’s a possible 11-man rotation, making BYU one of the deeper teams in all of college basketball. Every player on the team outside of the center position can shoot (except maybe Dallin Hall, funnily enough), which will be vital for Dybantsa’s and the team’s success. In fact, there’s a real world where Dybantsa gets significant minutes at point next season and Burgess moves into the starting four spot, which would make the team truly elite from beyond the arc. They will have a ton of rotation flexibility and will be able to throw a myriad of different looks at opponents. This team is going to be a ton of fun, and the players are going to be better off because of it.
In conclusion, no matter how BYU slices it, AJ Dybantsa is going to end up being a top pick in the 2026 NBA draft. It doesn’t matter that he’s attending a school not known for producing NBA talent, because he already is an NBA talent. What does matter is that BYU has built a team that compliments him well, and that most of next year’s roster is currently practicing complimenting a lottery talent this season with Egor Demin in town. They’ve built a roster that will allow them to compete on the national stage for Dybantsa’s sole year as a Cougar, which is all you can ask for from a team-building perspective. BYU fans should be ecstatic with the direction that their program is heading, and college basketball fans should be legitimately looking at the way they view the landscape of the sport.