College Reclamation Projects
What former five-star recruits have a chance to reclaim the hype at a new program?
Few things are coveted more than five-star recruits in college basketball. Outside of winning titles, blue chip prospects are the next best thing, and for good reason. In the 2022 recruiting class, 14 of the top 20 recruits were drafted in the next draft and an additional 3 were chosen in the following year. From the 2023 class 9 of the 20 top recruits were drafted and many of the remaining prospects are expected to be selected in the 2025 draft.
But what about the recruits who struggle, not impressing NBA scouts and working to the point of transferring to a different team. In the 2023-24 season, three of the previous years' top 20 recruits transferred (Kel’el Ware, Jaden Bradley, JJ Starling), of that group, Ware was drafted while both Starling and Bradley are projected starters at Syracuse and Arizona respectively. Coming into the 2024-25 season, the number of top 20 transferred recruits doubled and raised questions that this article seeks to answer.
Aaron Bradshaw (Ohio State, former 4th-ranked recruit)
The seven-foot-one-inch center struggled with injuries at Kentucky, he missed the first seven games and never cemented his spot in the rotation. He now goes to Ohio State where he will join Jake Diebler for his first full season and seek to solidify himself in a thin Buckeye frontcourt.
Before I dive into Bradshaw as a prospect, let’s explore some reasons why he struggled at Kentucky. For one, his skillset was ill-suited to fit his role. He was largely tasked with setting screens or occupying the dunker spot. Areas that emphasized his lack of physical strength and development as a roller (positioning, comfort). Defensively, it wasn’t much better, Kentucky was bad all-around and Bradshaw struggled to match other bigs' physicality and lacked the athleticism to protect the rim consistently.
As a prospect, Bradshaw does not lack potential. He is long while still having some perimeter skills that NBA teams are looking for. I liked the look of his jumper and think he could offer floor spacing despite the poor percentage and volume (4-14 on three-pointers). He is a good leaper in space but will still need development as a screener, he doesn’t position himself well and needs to be quicker in transitioning to rolling or popping after screening. On the defensive end, I think it is all about gaining strength. If he can bulk up, I would expect him to be an above-average defender.
Overall, Bradshaw’s value for Ohio State and stock as a prospect relies heavily on his strength development. If he can add that strength, I believe in his perimeter skills enough to consider him a second-round pick with the potential to sneak into the first round if things click at Ohio State.
DJ Wagner (Arkansas, former 7th-ranked recruit)
Former teammates with Aaron Bradshaw, DJ Wagner is headed to Arkansas after a disappointing freshman season. For Wagner, the disappointment comes from the success of Reed Shepherd and Rob Dillingham when compared to Wagner’s more mild success. The former McDonald’s All-American averaged 10 points, 3 assists, and 2 rebounds but struggled to remain efficient while being a part of the country's 109th-ranked defense (yikes).
Let’s talk about why Wagner struggles to gain context on his season. When watching him play, it is clear that Wagner possesses the athletic traits that people look for in highly-rated recruits. The problem was the lack of shooting which heavily reduced Wagner’s value as a driver (His biggest strength).
DJ Wagner is an interesting prospect, he struggled to capitalize on his opportunities at Kentucky. Yet, his athletic abilities point towards significant improvement as a finisher, and an uptick in decisiveness would make him a great driver. In the pick and roll, I was concerned with his lack of passing diversity, he was good at seeing the roller but rarely was he on time with his kick-out passes. His pace and vision in the pick and roll have to improve to reach NBA standards.
With how athletic Wagner is, I think he can reach a suitable defensive level but he has to become more consistent. Last season, he relied more on guesses to stay in front of people. In this area, I think it starts with improving his off-ball awareness, putting himself in better positions from the beginning, and relying on his quickness to be an effective defender.
Omaha Biliew (Wake Forest, former 10th-ranked recruit)
Omaha Biliew is one of the most interesting transfers in the entire country. At Iowa State, he played only ten percent of the possible minutes and didn’t play in 14 of the 18 conference games. Yet, Biliew is a former McDonald's All-American who possesses a promising skill set that could make Wake Forest an ACC contender.
The buzz around Biliew and his lack of playing time seemed to circle around him needing to prove that he was more than just a good athlete. At Iowa State, the defensive end is paramount and the Cyclones play one of the most demanding defenses in the country. Watching his high school film, I am not surprised that Biliew did not live up to that defensive standard which limited his ability to play.
Coming into a new situation, Biliew could be just what the Demon Deacons have been needing. An athletic frontcourt player who can play next to one of their dynamic guards (Hunter Sallis). As he gets more playing time, I expect his driving and post-up game to be his primary weapon as he can outmaneuver bigger players or out-muscle smaller players. He has the potential to score in the paint while generating a lot of free throws. As he proves score,, he will have to take large strides in his passing. I expect him to need multiple years at Wake Forest before making the jump to the NBA as an upperclassman.
As mentioned above, Biliew was not ready to play defense at the level that Iowa State demands. Guarding the ball, he often “hops” instead of slides which gives me questions on if he can guard smaller players. He also lacks the vertical ability to be a reliable primary or secondary rim protector.
Sean Stewart (Ohio State, former 17th-ranked recruit)
Sean Stewart is an athletic freak. He had good moments at Duke but is looking for a bigger opportunity at Ohio State. At Duke, the power forward averaged 3 points and 3 rebounds while being a Swiss army knife on the defensive end.
The reasons for Stewart’s inconsistent playing time are a combination of a really good player in front of him (Kyle Filipowski) and a clear weakness. Stewart is a high-level play finisher, but his creation and spacing abilities were sorely lacking. Duke didn’t encourage him to cut or screen so his offensive game was relatively purposeless.
Despite the offensive struggles, I remain high on Stewart as he heads to Ohio State. He is an NBA athlete with incredible defensive upside. An example of his impact was his performance versus NC State where he scored 12 points and added 5 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. I project him as a fringe second-round pick with the determining factor being his floor spacing and how he can develop in that area.
Aden Holloway (Alabama, former 18th-ranked recruit)
Holloway’s freshman year started with a bang as he poured in 19 points and 6 assists. That momentum continued over his first 10 games as he averaged 12 points along with 4 assists while shooting 39% from three. Over the rest of the season, his three-point shooting dropped to 25% and only averaged 6 points. This drop in production led him to leave Auburn to join a loaded Alabama team.
The young guard had a lot of opportunities to play at Auburn, but the freedom given to him by Bruce Pearl may have ended up hurting Holloway overall. In watching him, his shot selection was questionable and he struggled to play an advantage. The result was high usage and poor efficiency, issues that he looks to fix at Alabama.
At Alabama, Holloway will have to improve his efficiency drastically to raise his draft stock. He shot less than 40% from the field but I would expect his three-pointing shooting to improve, especially when his shot diet isn’t so reliant on tough pullup threes. Overall, less noise from his lower body and consistent head positioning would help his shooting consistency. As a playmaker, he needs to be better at making his reads on time. Because of the additional questions about his defense, I don’t expect Holloway to be drafted after this season.
TJ Power (Virginia, former 19th-ranked recruit)
The second Duke transfer on this list, TJ Power left Duke for similar reasons as Sean Stewart but brings a much different skillset to Virginia. TJ Power showed himself to be an adequate shooter with the ability to attack closeout. But his potential as a driver of offense has yet to be seen at the college level.
As mentioned, Power did not have the opportunity to show his skills outside of spot shooting. As he moves to Virginia, it will be interesting to see the value he can bring to a deprived Virginia offense. I like Power’s fit into Virginia’s defense as he develops his defensive value.
The draft stock for Power largely depends on what he shows as a creator. I don’t question his shooting but he will have to prove that he can get to the rim. He only attempted 5 shots at the rim last season, he was not asked to create offense but he will have to do so at Virginia to get drafted. I do not project him as a draft pick as of now, but I could see him reaching second-round consideration at Virginia.
Andrej Stojakovic (California, former 25th-ranked recruit)
An additional transfer that I am excited to watch in a new situation is Andrej Stojakovic. In his freshman year, Stojakovic averaged 8 points, 3 rebounds, and an assist in his 20 minutes a game. Moving to California, Stojakovic seeks to boost his draft hopes.
At Stanford, Stojakovic was like a wide receiver without a quarterback. He showed himself to be a good cutter, but his lack of aggression meant he rarely received the ball in the advantageous positions that his cutting created. Removing probably his best skill, Stojakovic’s value was dampened, this value again took a hit with a poor shooting season.
Moving to California, I believe Stojakovic will break out as both a shooter and cutter. With that value, the question will be how he develops as a driver. Last season, he lacked enough physicality to go through people and use his size to get to the rim or draw fouls. With the move, I project Stojakovic to break out and be drafted in the first round of next year's draft.