Critiquing College Combo’s
A look at the best combo guard prospect in college right now; VJ Edgcomb, Boogie Fland, and Tre Johnson.
As we are now getting into the season I want to start looking into some groups of players and adjusting my pre-season expectations. Preseason I had three freshman Shooting Guards that filled that combo guard role that I was comparing to each other. VJ Edgecombe, the 6’5 Bahamian at Baylor; Boogie Fland the 6’3 Arkansas microwave scorer; and Tre Johnson the 6’6 Wing playing Point Guard at Texas. Let’s take a look at all three and see who has been the most impressive at this point.
VJ Edgecombe
VJ is averaging 9.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks on a kind of disappointing .402 true shooting percentage.
However, he has had one of the best poster dunks of the season so far:
The biggest concern for VJ was the shooting coming in. I think we should go ahead and start there. VJ is currently averaging 5.5 three attempts per 40 minutes, he’s converting less than one of those attempts, it’s bad. A 15.4% shooting percentage from three is not going to cut it. The good news is historically according to Cerebro Sports 66 recorded games he’s averaged 5.3 attempts but shot 35% on those attempts. If VJ can end the season anywhere north of 33% on three-pointers I think that’s the upside in the other areas that will cover up the shooting concerns.
The positives for shooting are first off 13 attempts so far is such a small sample size that it probably doesn’t mean much. His free throws are still at an ok 66.7% on only 6 attempts and the Cerebro data had him at 79.6% on such attempts before the college games. While the shooting is something to keep an eye on I am not worried enough to start ringing alarm bells.
His 47.4% shooting from two is another thing to look into. For someone who can get to the rim as easily as Edgcomb that number is not good enough, especially for someone who lives on the offensive glass.
Speaking of living on the offensive glass, VJ is killing it as a rebounder. A guard averaging almost 11 rebounds per 40 minutes is insane. He has an offensive rebound % of 18.6! VJ uses his otherworldly athleticism to give his team a second chance and also to take those chances away from opponents.
He’s been better than advertised creating for others. While he is not a full-time Point Guard, and Baylor doesn’t need him to do so, he has racked up quite a few assists averaging 5.5 per 40 minutes is an excellent way to show he brings value when the shot isn’t falling.
What stands out most about VJ was always his athleticism and motor. 2.1 steals and 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes is an excellent example of the loud defensive plays he makes. They are also very in line with his Cerebro per 40 of 2.5 and 1.4 respectively, VJ has the athleticism, length, and motor to be a playmaker on the defensive end.
Offensively VJ is a lot like Jalen Green he’s taking shots right now he probably shouldn’t. If he can correct those shots to be ones he can make and focus on his athletic tools there’s a path to an all-star outcome like the Indiana version of Victor Oladipo.
Boogie Fland
Boogie is a combo guards combo guard. He’s averaging 15.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.7 steals on a .515 True Shooting Percentage.
His energy creates moments like this:
And his stability in the pick and roll creates moments like this:
Fland is off to a much better start than VJ. But he is also getting much more run in the Arkansas offense. He has played 107 minutes so far and has shot 38 times, has 17 assists, and 5 turnovers overs. He is ending an offensive possession once every 1:45 of the game clock. There is a lot of Boogie in what was supposed to be a more egalitarian Razorbacks offense. However, that is not a bad thing, as the kid had produced.
Fland lives in the pick-and-roll. Especially off the mid-range. This is a reason his efficiency isn’t as high as it could be through three games. He is shooting about 42% of his shots from three and isn’t getting all the way to the rim enough for the efficiency to be where you want a primary NBA scorer. He loves to pull up off the screen in the low mid-range to high post area.
Fland is hitting his threes he’s taking and it causes problems for defenses that he can hit them relentlessly. It opens up easy passes for him leading to per-40 averages of 17.2 points and 6.4 assists. While he’s not setting up teammates for look-after look he’s balancing his distribution duties with his scoring load well.
The nice surprise so far to me has been Boogie on the point-of-attack defense. He’s aggressive getting 1.9 steals per 40 but also smart about it at only .7 fouls. If he can continue to do this then his NBA role as a solid at almost everything combo guard is secure.
As a Mavs fan, it’s really hard to not see a lot of Jason Terry in Boogie’s game. The ability to manipulate a pick and roll while still primarily looking to score is very similar.
Tre Johnson
Tre is killing it. He’s absolutely thriving as a scorer for Texas. With averages of 25.3 points, 3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1 steal, and .7 blocks on an absurd .736 True Shooting!
These clips pretty much explain all you need to know about Johnson so far:
Just enough defense and playmaking to allow him to freelance into some insane shots that he is wildly effective at making.
Tre is a scoring guard. So much so that he broke Kevin Durant’s freshman debut record. Kevin Durant! Through the first three games, he’s averaging 33.4 points per 40 hitting 6 of the 11 threes he attempts in that time frame. He also is dominant inside the arch with a 2-point percentage of 56.5!
Honestly, when it comes to putting the ball in the bucket Johnson has been excellent this year so far. Let’s maybe pump the breaks a bit. His Cerebro per 40 averages are 26.5 points on 43/39/85 shooting or .565 True Shooting. So no, I don’t think he will continue his near 60% shooting from 3 but I do think he will be an efficient scorer.
Tre gets lost off the ball several times on defense but he has the ability to make splashy plays per 40 numbers of 1.3 steals and .9 blocks are nothing to write home about but they aren’t red flags either.
Johnson is an incredible offensive weapon who probably doesn’t take much off the table as a defender as long as you have good defenders around him. His 6’6 size also helps with letting him be put on multiple positions so if you need him to not be guarding a superstar that can happen.
Conclusion
With each of these guys their NBA roles are becoming clearer. VJ is still a top-10 pick most likely who will be a defense to offense guy. Boogie is probably a late lotto-mid first-round guy who can be an amazing sixth man for a team or spot starter. Tre has impressed me the most. I see him rising up into the lotto as a team’s primary or secondary scorer who can create an offensive identity for a team.