Does Size Matter?
With the NBA trending towards taller, stronger and longer players, I take a look at what role undersized guards have at the NBA level.
Size matters.
That's what we're told, especially when it comes to the NBA. Teams are seemingly adding size year on year and increasingly looking for the next jumbo ball handler or wing. With the push towards bigger, stronger and longer players, it got me to thinking:
"Is there still a role to be had for undersized guards at the NBA level, and if so, what is it?”
In last years draft, we saw Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham being taken at picks three and eight respectively. Both of these guys are considered undersized but both are expected to make an impact on their teams, if not immediately then certainly in the near future.
Going further back in time, we've had players like Allen Iverson and Chris Paul able to have immense impact in their own ways, despite their diminutive stature in comparison to some of their peers. Although the league has gotten bigger (both physically and in worldwide audience), it has always felt like skilled players can flourish, no matter their height. Need further convincing? How about Isaiah Thomas, Spud Webb and Muggsy Bogues?
So I decided to take a look at the current state of the league and see what role smaller guards can have in the modern NBA, and what skills do they need in order to stick on a roster.
Methodology and Data
First of all, I took a look at all 30 NBA rosters and identified all players currently on a roster listed at 6’2” or shorter according to the height listed on Basketball Reference. There are currently 53 “undersized” players in the league, with just about every team in the league having at least one undersized player on their roster, and only Denver, Oklahoma City, Portland and Washington being the exception to this.
I decided only to look at players that have played at least one full season in the NBA, so players like Sheppard, Devin Carter, Jared McCain and Jamal Shead are excluded owing to their small sample sizes. This removes 14 players from the data set and leaves us with 39 players to examine.
For the data, I looked at player career averages to get the fullest representation of career arcs. I did this to avoid looking at single seasons where a player maybe had an outlier season, either positive or negative, which may have skewed the data somewhat. For example, if someone shoots sub-35% from deep for most of their career but managed to shoot 40% last season, that wouldn’t be an accurate reflection of their skillset as a player.
I then took player season average data of players in the NBA that play the Guard spots from the 2023-24 season and the current 2024-25 season, and combined them to get an up-to-date league average data set to compare each players’ own career averages against. Players’ career averages then rated out as below average, around average or above average when compared to this league average data.
The Results
When comparing the player data against the league average data, three main “types” of player started to emerge - Shooter/Scorers, Playmakers and Defensive Playmakers. Each of these player types show a player excelling in certain statistical categories more than others. Of course, this is not an exact science and players often can fit into more than one player type, but more often than not, an undersized guard currently in the NBA fits into one of these three types.
SHOOTER / SCORER - these players tend to excel in statistical categories related to how well they shoot or score the basketball, in particular Field Goal %, 3-Point %, 3-Pointers Attempted per game, Free Throw % and True Shooting %. A perfect example of a shooter/scorer archetype is Stephen Curry. When compared to the league average stats, we can see how Curry is above average in all of these categories, often by a good margin.
Other good examples of shooter/scorers are Payton Pritchard, Seth Curry and Trae Young. Although Young’s 3-point % is just below the league average at 35.3%, he excels in a lot of the other scoring categories as evidenced by the fact that he has averaged 25.5 points per game over his career so far.
PLAYMAKER – these players tend to excel in the statistical categories related to how well they can create scoring opportunities while avoiding mistakes, in particular Assist %, Turnover % and Assist-to-Turnover Ratio. Looking at the data, a good representation of the playmaker archetype is Tyus Jones. Like Curry with his above average scoring/shooting profile, Jones ranks above average in all the above playmaking categories.
Other examples of this type are Tre Jones, Reggie Jackson and Cory Joseph. None of these names are what would considered as a superstar, but they clearly add great value to their teams with their ability to make plays for their teammates while at the same time avoiding costly turnovers.
DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKER - these players tend to excel in the defensive statistical categories, in particular Steal %, Block %, Stock % (Steal and Block % combined), Defensive Rebound % and DBPM. The standout example of the defensive playmaker is Gary Payton II of the Golden State Warriors. He is above average in almost all of these defensive statistics and although he isn’t much of an offensive weapon, his defensive impact can be felt when he is on the court.
This same level of defensive impact can be seen with players such as De’Anthony Melton and Jose Alvarado. These players offer solid level defensive in a diminutive package and all of them average over a steal per game. Given that they often aren’t seen as starters, this level of defense off the bench can often prove pivotal in games.
As I said previously though, often players can fit into more than one of these categories and it is these players that are often seen as starter calibre or even star calibre players. Looking at the players in the league currently, those that excel as both a Shooter/Scorer and a Playmaker include names such as Kyrie Irving, Jalen Brunson, Fred VanVleet and Damian Lillard. For players that excel as both Playmakers and Defensive Playmakers, the star names drop off but we find players such as Craig Porter Jr. and J.D. Davison. The toughest combination to find is players that excel as both a Shooter/Scorer and as a Defensive Playmaker where Scotty Pippen Jr. really shines. It is easy to see why Memphis converted his two-way contract to a standard one when you see what he can offer.
But the hardest by far is to find a player that excels at all three areas. In all the data scrutiny I have done to research this piece, only one player stood out in all of these areas. That player is Chris Paul of the San Antonio Spurs. Paul rated out as above average in most of the categories I mentioned, and that bears itself out in one of his nicknames, the Point God. Not every undersized player is going to hit anywhere near this level of production though.
It is also worth noting that for teams that have more than one undersized guard on their roster, they tend for the most part to fall under different proficiencies. For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers have both Darius Garland and Craig Porter Jr. on their roster. Looking at the data, Garland rates out as more of a Shooter/Scorer while Porter rates out as more of a Defensive Playmaker. There are of course exceptions to this where a team may have two of the same type on their roster, for example the Golden State Warriors. They have both Gary Payton II and De’Anthony Melton on their roster who rate best as Defensive Playmakers, however, this is offset by the fact that Stephen Curry is also on the roster, who rates out as a Shooter/Scorer.
2025 Draft Prospects
Applying this same criteria to some of the undersized prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft class, we can maybe get an idea where some of these players could most have an impact should they find themselves on an NBA roster in the near future. Looking at five of the highest ranked undersized guards in the class – Boogie Fland, Kylan Boswell, Mark Sears, Elliot Cadeau and Tahaad Pettiford – there are some interesting trends and signs that can offer some perspective on their draft outlook. For context, it should be remembered that the data on these five players only represents their time in college and will need to be rationalised when compared against the NBA league averages. With Fland and Pettiford, it should also be remembered that they have only played two games each at the college level so their stats will need time to level out.
There is the start of a picture emerging when looking at the data above. Fland, although early in his college career seems to be trending towards being a Playmaker, Boswell has potential to hit either the Shooter/Scorer or Playmaker type, Sears is heading towards being a Shooter/Scorer, Cadeau is on track to becoming a Playmaker and Pettiford could potentially be either a Shooter/Scorer or Playmaker. None of them seem to be headed towards being a Defensive Playmaker at this stage, although there is still time for them all to demonstrate if they have more in the bag on that front.
Outcome
So looking at the data as a whole, most players tend to have a proficiency in one area that is above average with perhaps a secondary proficiency in another. Star-level players tend to have two more or less equal proficiencies, although they may be more proficient in one. When evaluating draft talent, and in particular undersized guards, it may well be worth looking into these significant areas of any prospect to see if there is above average production that can translate to a role on an NBA roster. With the focus on more size and length in the league, many of these undersized players will be overlooked or undervalued by draft scouts and indeed the league, but as the data shows, production matters no matter how tall the player is.