Dribble, Pass, Shoot: The Heart of Talent Evaluation

Functional basketball skills dictate a prospect's potential.

Potential. This single word captivates NBA fans and draft junkies alike. Each year, the NBA Draft provides hope to all 30 fanbases. Mainstream media, talent evaluators and fans all throw around the word potential as this tangible piece of evidence to justify draft picks, hype up prospects and to loosely describe development. However, we’re doing it all wrong.

The fascination with size, wingspan, age and athleticism during the draft process is a clear misunderstanding of the actual talent evaluation process. Functional basketball skills should always trump the physical traits of a player during the evaluation process, specifically when evaluating perimeter players on the offensive side of the ball.

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Dribble, Pass and Shoot

In the modern era of NBA basketball, flawed players are exploited every single year in the postseason. The flaws that stand out the most often stem from the fundamental trio of dribble, pass and shoot. Looking back on some recent drafts may be the best method to show how a lacking skillset can completely diminish a player’s game.

Let’s start with Ben Simmons. The former number one overall pick out of LSU was viewed as a no-brainer choice at the top of the 2016 NBA Draft. A 6’10” point guard who could comfortably defend 1-4, rebound and go in transition, a reliable handle, unbelievable basketball feel and “potential off the charts”. Early in his career, Simmons proved to be one of the best young players in the world as a consistent triple-double threat and an emerging All-Defense member. However, the postseason reared its ugly head and turned the whole world, including his then-coach Doc Rivers, against him.

The absence of shooting touch as a perimeter player has completely derailed his career. Even with the ability to pass and dribble at a very high-level, the absence of one of the three fundamental perimeter skills has turned him from a promising young player to a borderline unplayable option in the playoffs.

To further drill home the value of dribble, pass and shoot, let’s compare two prospects from the 2020 NBA Draft. Here are the stats from these guards in their careers prior to the NBA.

Guard A: 7.4 PPG, 3.4 APG, 2.0 RPG, 44.5% FG, 27.4% 3P, 0.9 SPG

Guard B: 10.1 PPG, 4.4 APG, 3.4 RPG, 50.9% FG, 42.6% 3P, 1.9 SPG

The big knock on Guard B was his unorthodox shot mechanics despite shooting an elite percentage and showcasing great range prior to the NBA Draft. Guard A was viewed as this high potential lead guard with hopes of becoming a dynamic shot-maker, something he hadn’t consistently been prior to the 2020 NBA Draft. Guard A is Killian Hayes who the Detroit Pistons drafted at pick 7 that year. Guard B is Tyrese Haliburton who fell to the Sacramento Kings at pick 12.

Since then, Haliburton has blossomed into a premier offensive generator as his elite passing vision, outside shot-making and creative handle have turned him into one of the best pick and roll players in the entire association. As for Killian Hayes, the jumpshot never developed as he has remained a career 27.7% 3P shooter. Production is a useful indicator for young players. Haliburton’s pre-draft skeptics overlooked his elite shooting production due to atypical mechanics while many believed in Hayes’ shooting touch despite being a poor shooter throughout most of his young career.

Scoring is centric to basketball. The ability to score the basketball puts team defenses in a bind. For a player like Killian Hayes, the inability to reliably score the ball diminished his passing upside as teams refused to send extra bodies his way. However, elite shooting doesn’t mean elite potential. Let’s look at the player Michael Porter Jr. has become. At 6’10”, MPJ is a career 41.0% 3P shooter while scoring over 15 points per game. A tremendous asset for the Denver Nuggets no doubt.

While injuries definitely changed who he was as a high school prospect, it’s evident the lack of an elite handle has limited Porter Jr. from being a dominant on-ball player. Despite his elite shooting touch, great positional size, and good athleticism, MPJ’s potential is hard-capped due, mostly, to his dribbling capabilities and passing vision.

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Does size matter?

To answer the age old question, yes, size matters. In today’s NBA, the value of defensive switch-ability, playing in the gaps, gang rebounding and lineup flexibility all point to the benefit of having size across the board. Especially on the defensive end of the floor, positional size, length and athleticism play significant factors. However, when it comes to offensive talent evaluation, size is one of the least important areas to consider.

Let’s focus on the crown jewel of the 2023 NBA Draft, Victor Wembanyama. The first area that stands out when watching Wemby is his sheer size and length. He is an absolute specimen. However, does the buzz surrounding the Spurs’ generational talent stem solely from his height? Obviously not. The skills paired with a 7’4” frame are what makes Wembanyama so special. Wemby’s emerging perimeter tools are what make him a nightmare to defend. He can stretch the floor and pull opposing 5’s away from the rim. He can handle in both the halfcourt and in transition. His passing vision and accuracy coupled with his size will eventually make him a near-impossible player to effectively double team.

I, myself, have “missed” in previous draft classes by over-emphasizing the value of height. One prospect I doubted would be great in the NBA was Trae Young. At Oklahoma, Young took the country by storm with his unreal range, elite pick and roll play and his ability to create space for himself as a scorer. In hindsight, Young sounds like a perfect prospect for the modern NBA. A younger me overlooked Trae’s elite skills because of his slight frame.

Two-time National Champion, former Consensus All-American, Naismith and Wooden Award winner Jalen Brunson is another testament to this. Despite an incredible college career and an elite dribble, pass and shoot skillset, the Villanova guard was completely overlooked due to his size and age.

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Age Does Not Assume Potential

Perhaps my greatest pet peeve around NBA Draft discussion is the loose equivalency that youth equals potential. While yes, a player typically does develop as they age, the two factors are not directly tied together. In most cases, NBA draft prospects who are 22 or 23 years old are often labeled as “high floor, low ceiling prospects”. Does this make any sense?

Let’s look at Thunder big man Chet Holmgren for example. Holmgren, who just turned 22 years old in May, is likely four-plus years away from entering his prime. As we likely can all agree on, Holmgren will dramatically improve between now and his age 26 season. If we don’t expect 22 year old NBA players to stop improving, why would we expect a 22 year old prospect to be limited in their growth? For the first time in their lives, they will be exposed to NBA-level coaching with more analytics, metrics and staff members than they’ve ever seen.

Let’s look at Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren’s teammate in OKC, as evidence of this fallacy. J-Dub was 21 years old by the 2022 NBA Draft, yet has improved his game substantially since then. The former Santa Clara prospect showcased high-level ball skills during his evolution as a college player. Since then, he has built on these fundamental skills as he’s grown as a downhill attacker, developed as an NBA three-point shooter and improved as a decision-maker.

If age dictated potential, wouldn’t all 19-year olds find similar outcomes? If so, what separates a Sekou Doumbouya from a Giannis Antetokounmpo? Potential does not stem from age, height, weight, wingspan or vertical leap in a direct fashion. Basketball is a skilled game. The players who can dribble, pass and shoot are the players who stand out compared to those who cannot. It sounds so simple, yet it’s often so overlooked. Good basketball players are good basketball prospects. When we discuss potential, it is essential to point to which skills will provide functionality on an NBA court.

If the prospect is a great shooter (something to watch for with Liam McNeeley this year at UCONN), can he thrive as a movement shooter off flares, pin-downs, ghost screens, etc. On the other hand, is this great shooter better as a standstill catch and shoot threat? For a lead guard (a good test for Dylan Harper at Rutgers), is he comfortable running pick and roll to both his left and right hand? Does this guard read both the strong and weak-sides of the floor? These skills are where potential and functionality lies.