Henri Veesaar Scouting Deepdive
North Carolina's Henri Veesaar burst onto the scene as a three-level scorer after cutting his teeth as a defensive specialist with Arizona, but does he still have more development ahead of him?
Throughout the season, when eyes were directed at North Carolina, it was because of highly touted freshman Caleb Wilson. However, after Wilson’s season came to an early end due to injury, that attention pivoted in the direction of junior big man Henri Veesaar. Not only that, but the Estonian center immediately became the Tar Heels’ primary option once Wilson went down, allowing him to showcase the advanced skillset that many evaluators were already aware of. Now, he’ll likely hear his name called in the first-round of the upcoming NBA Draft, and while he may be the most offensively gifted center in his draft class, he has work to do before he’ll be able to consistently compete against the best players in the world. In this article, I aim to break down every aspect of his game, including where he needs to improve if he wants to reach his professional ceiling.
Player Profile:
Henri Veesaar is a 7’0” and 225lb center from Tallin, Estonia who began his basketball career with the Real Madrid youth program in Spain, where he had a productive tenure. He also represented Estonia in FIBA’s U18 European Challenger in 2021, where he posted averages of 16.2 points per game, 11.6 rebounds, and 3.8 blocks. He then appeared with Estonia’s senior national team in 2021, making him the youngest player in the country’s history to play in a FIBA qualifying event. He then decided to take his talents stateside, enrolling at the University of Arizona as a four-star recruit in the class of 2022.
He was a role player during his true freshman season, appearing in 29 games but playing only 7.1 minutes per contest. He would then redshirt for his true sophomore season. Veesaar burst onto the scene as a redshirt sophomore, as he cemented himself as one of the better backup centers in the country and a real NBA prospect. In that season he averaged 9.4 points per game, 5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 blocks, and .7 steals on shooting splits of 59.2% from the field, 32.7% from beyond the arc, and 68.6% from the free-throw line. These numbers, in addition to an impending battle for Arizona’s starting center spot with Motiejus Krivas, led Veesaar to test his worth on the transfer market.
He would eventually commit to the North Carolina Tar Heels and head coach Hubert Davis, joining five-star recruit Caleb Wilson and a pre-existing core for his redshirt junior season. It was clear early on that Veesaar had made significant developmental strides, as he dominated against Kansas and defensive specialist Flory Bidunga in the second game of the season. On the year, he averaged 17 points per game, 8.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 blocks, and .6 steals on splits of 60.8% from the field, 42.6% from the three-point line, and 61.5% from the charity stripe. Obviously, these numbers left him confident in his professional future, leading him to enter the draft and forego his final year of college eligibility.
Interior Scoring:
Veesaar’s offensive game has always gravitated around his interior scoring, but he was especially effective from close-range this season. He shot 75.3% on his at-the-rim attempts on solid volume (9.6 attempts per 100 possessions). What made his development from this scoring level interesting was his emergence as a self-creator after exclusively operating as a play finisher throughout his first two seasons. That’s not to say he got any worse as an off-ball threat; that’s still how he did most of his damage, just that his game is vastly more versatile today than it was during his Arizona tenure.
He did most of his interior creation with his back to the basket, using his strength, footwork, and long arms to cause havoc for interior defenders. Despite dealing with some strength and weight concerns as a defender (we’ll cover that later), he actually plays bigger than he is on the offensive end. That said, he can occasionally struggle to back down significantly heavier defenders. He’s excellent at absorbing and finishing through contact, drawing quite a few and-one free-throws this season. He plays with an aggression from this level that I didn’t see from many collegiate centers this past season, a mental trait that I think will support both his immediate impact and long-term development. I’d argue that his biggest weakness as an interior self-creator is his tendency to drop the ball below his waist, where it’s in range to be stolen by help defenders.
Veesaar is a very active screener and all-around off-ball mover, giving him a very strong play finishing foundation. Not only that, but he also gets off the ground incredibly quick for a big man, although he doesn’t have ton of vertical athleticism. His 9’3” reach makes up for some of his leaping concerns, allowing him to be a very proficient lob finisher. As previously mentioned, he doesn’t let contact greatly affect his finishing, and he proved to be a solid under- and around-the-rim finisher throughout the season. The only reoccurring issue I saw from him in this department was his questionable hands, as he bobbled a ton of passes (this is also an issue he faces as a rebounder). Hopefully he’s just taking his eyes off the ball, and this isn’t a coordination issue, but I can’t say for sure.
Mid-Range Scoring:
After two seasons in which mid-range scoring didn’t play a huge part in his overall offensive arsenal, Veesaar emerged as one of the best mid-range scorers in the country. On a mixed bag of traditional jumpers, push shots, floaters, and hook shots, he knocked down 53.5% of his attempts from this level. He also doubled his volume from the year before, attempting 5.1 mid-range shots per 100 possessions. This is an area where I expect him to continue improving throughout the early part of his professional career, development that would further cement him as the premier scoring center among his contemporaries.
He has fantastic feel on his push shots and floaters, a shot that majorly supported his all-around offensive game throughout his junior season. This shot further diversified his already impressive pick-and-roll game, allowing him to avoid putting the ball on the floor in search of at-the-rim opportunities, something that often led to turnovers for Veesaar with both Arizona and North Carolina. He has good range on these shots, often attempting them from just past the charity stripe. Finally, he’s able to find these opportunities both on- and off-the-ball, although he’s definitely more competent on non-dribble attempts.
Veesaar also developed a hook shot this season, a shot he was able to incorporate into both his post-up and dribble-drive game. He’s incredibly comfortable with his back to the basket, and his aforementioned footwork, wingspan, and feel further bolstered his ability to knock down these attempts at an advanced rate. Considering this isn’t a shot that many modern NBA centers greatly rely on, I’m not entirely sure that whatever organization he finds himself suiting up for will be overly interested in further developing it, but if he does continue to improve his hook shot, he’ll have a virtually unblockable move at his disposal which he can use in a myriad of scenarios.
Very few of Veesaar’s mid-range attempts were traditional jump shots, a category that includes pull-up, turnaround, and fade-away jumpers. He really only turned to these shots when he had to, whether that be at the end of the shot clock or after he’s already exhausted his options on post-ups. That said, I thought his mechanics looked solid on these looks, an opinion further supported by his stellar outside shooting, a development he made between his sophomore and junior seasons. In fact, because of the success he found from beyond the arc, I’m surprised he didn’t attempt more mid-range jump shots. His dabbling in this department is what leads me to believe he still has a ton of room to grow, developments that could result in his emergence as one of the better all-around scoring centers in the league.
Outside Shooting:
I wouldn’t blame you if you thought that Veesaar’s growth as an outside shooter was merely a fluke, as he was rather bad from long-range throughout his two seasons with Arizona. However, nothing about his film suggests that he’s not a real three-point shooter, with the only statistical indicator pointing toward fluke-like production being his poor free-throw shooting. He attempted 3 threes per game this season (5.6 attempts per 100 possessions) and converted 42.6% of those attempts. Based on what we saw this season alone, I’m convinced that he’s a real long-range marksman, even if he does drop below the 40% mark once he reaches the league.
His three-point attempts came exclusively off-the-catch, something that doesn’t bother me considering he’s not much of a ball handler. That said, he doesn’t only attempt standstill catch-and-shoot threes, as he’s comfortable stepping into his shot or even moving around the court in search of open looks. His mechanics, while on the slower side, are consistent and smooth, although he does drop the ball rather low to get his shot motion started. He creates his own rhythm, and while I doubt he’ll ever become a true movement or off-the-dribble shooter, he’ll probably be a better off-ball shooting option than most professional 7-footers.
Passing & Playmaking:
The Carolina coaching staff allowed Veesaar to flex his passing instincts this season, and while that didn’t always have positive outcomes, he was able to prove himself capable of doing more than just tertiary ball movement. He maintained a positive assist-to-turnover ratio throughout the season and found passing success in a myriad of ways. During his second season with Arizona, he showed some flashes of being a burgeoning quick decision maker, but I was surprised to see just how good he looked (at times) as a half court passer throughout his junior campaign.
Despite only being the team’s second-best offensive player, his gravity in certain situations was immense, allowing him to collapse opposing defenses before finding teammates for easy offense. He found the most success out of the pick-and-roll, where he was often met by multiple defenders once receiving a pass. Here, he proved to be an incredibly unselfish player, as the ball quickly popped off his hands once he saw increased defensive pressure. It definitely helped that he was usually flanked by a cutting Caleb Wilson, who is virtually unstoppable against weakened interior defenses, but it’s likely that Veesaar will play alongside similarly athletic teammates once he reaches the league.
Unlike most frontcourt players, Veesaar is actually better at finding teammates near the hoop than he is kicking the ball out to shooters. He really only throws kickout passes when he has given up on his own scoring opportunity, often leaving his feet to do so. This is my biggest issue with his passing; he leaves his feet way too often, consistently resulting in turnovers. He needs to improve his decision-making in these scenarios. That said, his ability to throw cross-court passes with one hand and his willingness to even attempt mid-air passes (something you rarely see from frontcourt players) tells me that he still has quite a bit of development ahead of him as a passer, something that I think has flown too far under the radar when people discuss his long-term outlook.
Defense & Rebounding:
Many evaluators sell Veesaar as a two-way prospect with equal value on both ends, and while he is a solid defender who makes a substantial impact on this side of the floor, I think most of his value comes on the offensive end. In fact, this was his least impactful defensive season since he enrolled in college, mostly because he was able to dedicate more of his efforts to the offensive end. That said, he’s an incredibly competitive player who doesn’t simply take breaks on defense, and he has always been a very good collegiate rim protector. There are a few glaring weaknesses which limit his defensive ceiling, but I imagine he’ll maintain a positive defensive reputation.
Veesaar is an interesting rim protector for a few reasons. As a primary rim protector, he makes up for his lack of vertical leaping by having the best verticality in this class (by that I mean, his contests are almost always vertical, and he doesn’t commit many fouls on traditional contests). He’s also a mobile big man, likely because he’s on the thinner side, which allows him to keep up with smaller players inside (this isn’t true for his perimeter defense). Finally, he found quite a bit of success as a secondary rim protector this season, as North Carolina had a talented frontcourt rotation that split some of the primary rim protection duties from time to time. Because of these traits, he projects to have a rather versatile interior defensive skillset at the next level.
As far as steals, deflections, and overall defensive playmaking is concerned, he definitely has work to do before matching up against professional opponents. He’s not much of a risk taker in this department, especially as a primary defender, usually generating his steals by poking balls loose as players attempt to drive past him. He’s not very switchable, as his lack of smooth lateral movement leads him to struggle against quicker defenders. That said, his north-south movement is solid. He gets blown by on closeouts, and he’s not much of a recovery defender. All in all, he needs to work on his agility and balance moving forward, and he likely won’t be able to add much weight or muscle to his frame until he improves in those areas.
As I mentioned, Veesaar shared the floor with a very talented frontcourt crop this season, a group which was headlined by soon-to-be top five pick Caleb Wilson (an excellent rebounder himself). Because of this, his rebounding flew under the radar. He’s a very talented two-way rebounder, and he’s one of the better putback scorers in this class. For a guy who isn’t overly gifted as a vertical athlete, his second jump is very quick. This allows him to come down with offensive rebounds and go back up before defenders can offer a strong contest. He also plays bigger than he is in these situations and seems to have better ball security here than he does on traditional scoring opportunities.
Other traits that make Veesaar one of the better rebounding prospects in this class are his timing and ability to fight around boxouts. He had a lot of putback dunks this season, but I expect tip-ins to be more common for him as he finds himself matched up against more athletic opponents. This shouldn’t be an issue, as his timing is excellent on tip-ins. Secondly, his swim moves around boxouts are top-notch, a skill that is rarely discussed when evaluating frontcourt prospects. This makes up for some of his size, strength, and athleticism concerns. All in all, while he may not be an all-league rebounder in the NBA, I expect him to continue making a difference on the glass.
Summary:
Before I summarize Veesaar’s game, I want to list any and all of his weaknesses and flaws in order to garner a better understanding of his game in its entirety. It’s important to note that all players have weaknesses, and what makes the great players great is their ability to improve upon their weaknesses instead of treating them as areas void of potential. As far as Veesaar is concerned, he’s far less flawed than most center prospects, giving him one of the higher floors among frontcourt players in this class.
His worst habit as a scorer is his tendency to drop the ball below his waist, where defenders can easily poke or slap it loose. This is where most of his non-passing turnovers come from.
He struggles against heavier and stronger interior defenders, as he isn’t able to impose his will on post-ups. His footwork is also not as effective against these defenders, as they’re more difficult to navigate around.
His hands aren’t the greatest, as he consistently bobbled passes and rebounds throughout the season. If this is a coordination issue, it could stifle his development in other areas.
His handle leaves much to be desired, especially since he seems to be interested in driving from the perimeter and playmaking for others. If he wants to be more than an interior play finisher, he’ll need to develop his handle.
He was incredibly efficient on mid-range attempts this year; his volume from this level didn’t reflect that. He needs to increase his mid-range volume in the future.
He loves using shot fakes from the perimeter, but they very rarely work. They’re simply not convincing, and any defender with any semblance of discipline will not fall for them. A better shot fake would support his game from all three levels.
He can look flustered as a three-point shooter when defenders offer a strong contest, suggesting that he isn’t the pure sharpshooter that he seemed to be throughout this season.
He has always been a bad free-throw shooter, which doesn’t bode well for his outside shooting projection. That said, because his mechanics look fine from the charity stripe; I assume this is mostly mental.
His passing has a ton of room to grow, as he needs to become more disciplined in this department. He leaves his feet on many of his passes, which often results in turnovers. He’s also very easy to read, making his out-of-control passing tendencies even more dangerous.
As a rim protector, he’s a bit limited by his lack of impressive vertical leaping. I actually think he gets much more lift on the offensive end than he does on defense. His discipline and timing could also use some work, as while he always stays vertical, he often leaves his feet too early or too late.
He’s not much of a defensive playmaker or turnover generator, and he’s not overly switchable. He’s not as mobile on the perimeter as you’d expect him to be, and he’s not equipped to match up against smaller players.
His size and strength concerns can hinder him as a rebounder, but he’s found ways to make up for some of these issues. That said, if he can add weight while maintaining his athleticism, he’d become a much better two-way rebounder.
To summarize Henri Veesaar’s game, I first want to reiterate that I think he’s a far superior offensive prospect than he is a defensive one. His three-level scoring is not matched by any of the centers in this class, and if his defense was to the level that some evaluators think it is, he’d be a lottery pick. I also think there’s room for skepticism regarding his outside shooting, mid-range translation, and passing ceiling. If these parts of his game falter, and he settles exclusively for pick-and-roll play finishing and subpar three-point shooting, I don’t think he’ll be anything special in the league. That said, I don’t think he’ll ever be bad enough on either end to fall out of the league entirely. With the understanding that his floor is lofty, you can then view his ceiling as something worth betting on. At his best, he’s a three-level scorer and three-point sharpshooter who offers a positive impact on the defensive end and on the glass. If he improves as a passer and mid-range scorer, he’d possess everything he needs to be one of the better offensive centers in the league (besides a handle, which I don’t foresee him developing). When you have a player who seems guaranteed to carve out a long NBA career no matter how he develops, a ceiling as intriguing as Veesaar’s becomes worth considering when selecting in the middle of the first round (or even higher).