In Defense Of Ace Bailey

Rutgers has an Ace up it's sleeve in 2024/25.

Airious “Ace” Bailey is a Rutgers Small Forward listed at 6’10 200 lbs. He is a shot-creating wing with maybe the largest range of outcomes in this draft. He is probably the most divisive lottery-level prospect in the 2025 draft class. I am leaning more towards liking him than not so let me go through why. 

According to 247, Ace is the number two prospect in the class and the top small forward. ESPN has reported through Jonathan Givony that Ace is the most likely player according to scouts to overtake Cooper Flagg as the top prospect in the class, and it’s not hard to see why. 

Ace is the size of a modern NBA power forward, he was listed at 6’8 in high school and has a 7’ wingspan to match. With the added height now I wouldn't be surprised if the wingspan also is longer. His frame is thin but could fill out well and a decent vertical jump and nice timing on some weak-side shot-blocking. However Ace wants to be an early 2000s NBA wing, he loves to create his own shot, averaging 15 field goal attempts per game according to Cerebro, on a healthy 49% from the field for someone whose shot diet is so many mid-range shots. He averaged 4 three attempts per game in his high school career on 33% but was excellent at 37.9% in all the combined games Cerebro has for his senior year with a nice 77.7% from the line in the same timeframe. 

Ace is a tough shot taker which is usually a problem but unusually Ace excels at making the tough shots. These shots I am about to show you are horrible selection for most 6’10 guys but for Ace, they go in. 

Here is an example:

Or an even more absurd one here:

Ace struggles to create easy shots for himself but, the hard ones go in so it’s hard to fault him too much. Ace has the confidence to take the shots because he consistently makes them. 

Ace struggles to see open teammates some of the time but also has wildly fun flashes of finding open men out of double teams that make you think, ‘Maybe there is something here?’ I think the objection that he is a black hole stems solely from his total of 1.9 assists per game on Cerebro. It is my opinion that his actual passing ability was hidden by how his teammates shot off of those passes, not the quality of looks he gave them. He easily could have averaged 3-4 assists with more shooting luck. His handle isn't as developed as his biggest fans think it is but neither is it as bad as his worst detractors think. 

All in all, we are looking at someone whose offense is probably closer to Michael Porter Jr, Jabari Smith Jr, or

Jaren Jackson Jr. The absurdity of some of the makes brings to mind Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, or Kobe Bryant and you will sometimes see these brought up on social media but the inability to get the easy looks has me pumping the brakes on those comparisons. 

While I think the offense might be slightly overrated, I’m wondering if people realize how good Ace can be on the other end of the court. Cerebro has him averaging 2.2 combined steals and blocks per game as a senior and some of the tape is remarkable. 

His ability to slide defensively cutting off drives with his length is a real NBA skill:

And for a shotmaker of his caliber to be able to defend the rim like this, any team in the league would like this:

Fun things happen with Ace on defense. He isn’t a complete lockdown defender or a full-time rim protector but his defensive ability leads to more paths for him at the NBA level than I think most people doubting his shot realize. 

His play style is something I think people just ignore about Ace. Yes, they are tough shots but he isn’t dominating time of possession. His ability to move off the ball will be a major boost to offenses. 

Yes, that says 33 points on four dribbles, now I didn’t go back and actually count the dribbles from the game but it wasn’t many even if it was more than the four attested in the above post.  Ace has the ability to play off the ball and help teams in that way instead of requiring high usage to get his points. 

I think his fit into a team is actually easier than most high school high volume-high difficulty shot takers. As far as I can tell there have been no issues to this point with his selfishness or attitude. Ace seems to want to win and has the tools to be an excellent forward at the NBA level. 

One area for growth that I would like to see is pick and roll reps as the roll man. I think if Ace learns to be a roll/pop/slip threat like he could be then it would generate the easy looks he’s not creating for himself in isolation situations. I see Ace as more of an NBA power forward or even small-ball five at his peak more than the jumbo shooting guard he has played like currently. 

The downside is there, Adam Morrison, Johnny Davis, Sam Dekker, and other tough shot makers didn’t make the leap when they moved up to NBA-level defenders. It could cause Ace’s game to crumble if the tough shots he can make over high schoolers and college guys just do not exist at the NBA level. However, I think this is slightly unlikely. I think he has enough paths forward as a spot-up threat and especially if he can unlock the threat of a pick that his offense will be fine. Paring that with his defensive flashes I don’t think Ace is a likely bust. He might not ever reach his sky-high upside but I think he definitely has several paths to a profitable NBA career. 

As far as good fits for him it’s hard to think of a better lotto-expected team for him than Brooklyn. He fits the mold of defenders they seem to prioritize and with Simmons setting him up he could have a decent ability to get easier looks. Another fantastic fit would be Detroit where he could release some of the scoring pressure off of Cade and Ivey while still helping on the defensive end. I would like to see him avoid the Pacers, or the Rockets because I think he would be forced into the wrong role there but another interesting fit is the Hornets, while there is some overlap with Brandon Miller a big three uniting those two with LaMelo Ball would be disgusting. 

In conclusion, Ace can look like a superstar of all superstars some nights, his game against St. John’s was like watching Dirk’s Nike hoops summit film. Other nights when the shot isn’t falling things look more bleak, but as long as he is willing to put in the work there are several clear NBA roles for the high school phenomenon looking to carry it into the pros after this year at Rutgers. 

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