John Mobley Jr. Scouting Report
The four-star guard burst onto the scene in college basketball as a freshman last season. With his offensive skillset, can he add more to his arsenal to boost his draft stock?
You only bust onto the stage as a freshman in the modern era of college basketball if you are a star in the making. John Mobley Jr. did just that last season for the Ohio State Buckeyes. The guard has the making of being a tremendous shooter and offensive weapon. A four-star coming out of high school is looking to show why he should have been a five-star as he heads into his sophomore season. The question is, what else besides his offensive skillset does he need to work on to soar up the NBA draft boards this season? Let’s dive in.
The Physical Profile
John Mobley Jr. stands at 6’1 and weighs in at 175 pounds. His wingspan and verticality haven’t been registered yet, but he’s going to be in that typical smaller guard range with a range of a 6’2-6’4 wingspan. Let’s take a look at a player that Mobley Jr. reminds me of:
One player that comes to mind is Payton Pritchard of the Boston Celtics. Pritchard has turned himself into an elite sixth man coming off the bench to light up the floor offensively. Last season, he appeared in 80 games, starting three while averaging 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. He shot 47.2% overall and 40.7% from beyond the arc. When he first entered the NBA, he averaged 7.7, 6.2, and 5.6 points per game throughout the first three seasons. Both players are 6’1 and live as offensive first weapons. I think we could see a similar career path at the next level for Mobley Jr.
Mobley Jr. isn’t a wildly athletic player. He’s a bit undersized, but he could make up for it by getting even stronger. He’s already not afraid to take on contact, but bumping to 180-185 pounds with some extra muscle will go a long way in the NBA.
What’s the Vision?
Mobley’s offensive abilities are the reason that he is already an NBA prospect. Last season, he averaged 13 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 38.9% overall and 38.5% from three-point. He got to the free throw line 2.7 times per game, knocking down 88.2% of those attempts. He can score on all positions on the court. He can drive inside to finish a tough shot around the rim, he has a beautiful mid-range game, and from outside he can knock it down from beyond NBA range. Off the catch-and-shoot he is prolific. Looking at his metrics, he finished with a 109.8 offensive rating. From inside the arc, he shot 39.6% on the season and 40.4% in Big Ten games. He also finished with a 50.3% effective field goal percentage and a 54.8% true shooting percentage. At just 18 years old, he looked like he already had NBA offensive capabilities, so as he matures and develops he is only going to get better.
His playmaking has shown some glimpses of what could be a genuinely strong second set of skills that could elevate him into the next level of NBA prospects. He finished last season with a 15.3% assist rate and a 13.5% turnover rate. I would love to see that turnover rate cut down as he continues to develop. Looking at the assist to turnover ratio, he finished with 2.2 compared to 1.5, which is strong considering he was just a freshman playing in a combo-guard role. One risk I see here is Bruce Thorton is returning to the Buckeyes this season. Last year, Thorton was the primary ball handler and point guard. However, Mobley Jr. should still be able to assert himself more on the court and become that secondary ball handler as a complimentary guard to Thorton.
Defensively, he has plenty of room to grow. At 6’1, he isn’t going to be crashing the boards any time soon. He finished with just 1.5 rebounds on average and a 5.8% defensive rebounding percentage. His on-ball defense isn’t bad, especially considering he was a freshman playing at the highest level of college basketball. He had a couple of nice games, racking up three steals against UCLA and four steals against Green Bay. He is quick and physical enough with his style of play that should allow him to grow with his ability to force turnovers and generate fast break opportunities.
How Can It Break Down?
Right now, he is a one-skill player as an offensive weapon. While his stat lines as a freshman show the skillset he already has, his metrics show an potential underlying flaw. Consistency. Mobley Jr. loves to shoot the ball, it’s as simple as that. On the season, he averaged 10.6 attempts per game and 6.3 three-point attempts. Over the course of the season, it trended even more towards three-point attempts only as from January 21st through the end of the season that average jumped to 7.6 three-point shots per game. Over the course of that stretch, he shot just 35% from beyond the arc. If you take out the four games where he hit four or more during that stretch, it drops to just 26.9%. You can argue that I’m cherry picking, but you have to look at the full picture. Against teams with a 199 KenPom ranking or worse, he was prolific 51.6% from 3pt. For a player where his entire draft value at the time is around his shooting and in particular his three-point shooting abilities, there are some questions around how consistent can he be against some of the top talent in the country?
What’s the Pathway?
I think we have just touched the surface of what Mobley Jr. could do on the basketball court. There is a star college basketball player in there ready to bust onto the stage. To unlock that potential, there are a couple of areas I would like to see Mobley Jr. improve on:
Drawing Fouls – I don’t want Mobley Jr. to start foul-baiting, but he could skyrocket his scoring metrics even further if he is ability to drive to the basket more and force defenders to commit fouls. He’s already a strong free throw shooter, so she could actually open two opportunities if he were to drive to the paint more. One, he could draw fouls and get to the free throw line. Two, he could open up opportunities to dish it off to teammates. He’s an incredible shooter, so this won’t become a large percentage of his game, but I’d love to see him tick up the average free throw attempts this coming season.
Playmaking – His metrics pass the overall test, and his showing on the court pass the eye test. There is a much higher ceiling than what we saw last season with his playmaking. One thing that will help is playing with a well-rounded mindset than just a scoring mindset. When he would receive the ball, he essentially just focused on scoring. However, there were a few games including back-to-back eight assist games against Iowa and Penn State that show what he can do in those games. He finished with 12 and 19 points respectively in those games as well, so he could turn himself into a strong point guard in college basketball. I do want to call out that the retention of Bruce Thorton going into his senior season is going to harm the chances that we see here, but I believe a step forward towards three assists per game is a reasonable ask next year.
I hit pretty hard on how I’m concerned about the consistency in my “how can it break down?” section, but I do believe with more development those concerns will be subsided. His ability to knock down shots is there, the form is perfect, and he can score from all lengths of the court. While there’s plenty of room to improve on, I think he’ll naturally improve with that concern.
Right now, Mobley Jr. would slot in as a second-round draft pick next season. However, I’m not sure that I’ve been more confident in a player being able to increase their stock and get themselves into first-round conversations. That might not come in one season, but I think by 2027 we could be having legitimate conversations.