Josh Dix Scouting Deepdive
The lights-out three point shooting 6'6 wing Josh Dix has emerged as a 2026 NBA Draft prospect. After spending three seasons at Iowa, Dix is headed to Creighton where he'll look to improve his stock.
An anomaly in today’s era of college basketball, but Josh Dix is entering his fourth year after spending three seasons with the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Creighton commit wasn’t a star freshman in the Big Ten, rather he started his career averaging just 9.2 minutes and scoring two points per game. Throughout each season, Dix has taken a step forward leading to what was a breakout season last year as a junior. Now, with another year where Dix can develop, he has put his name on the map as a potential name to watch for the 2026 NBA Draft. What does Dix’s potential career look like and how can he work his way to the top this season?
The Physical Profile
Josh Dix stands at 6’6 and weighs 210 pounds. He hasn’t registered a wingspan or vertical, but he has some decent verticality and I’d have to guess his wingspan is in the 6’7 or 6’8 range. A couple of players come to mind when watching Josh Dix:
One player that comes to mind is Christian Braun of the Denver Nuggets. Physically, he is 6’6 and 220 pounds, so he’s similar in stature to Dix. Skill wise, Braun is a better rebounder, but I think that Dix could prove to be a better playmaker. In Braun’s rookie season in 2022-2023, he averaged 4.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 0.8 assists across 76 games. In just three years, he has jumped to 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assist, and 1.1 steals. He shot 58% overall and 39.7% from beyond the arc on 2.8 attempts per game. Dix is a better three-point shooter, but in terms of development I believe that he can fit into a similar mold. While Braun shoots less than three shots from outside a game, their forms are even similar. When you watch Braun cut to the paint, there’s a ton of similarities in how they finish shots and play the game.
Another player that comes to mind is Dalton Knecht of the Los Angeles lakers. Knecht stands at 6’6 and 215 pounds, so again he poses a similar body build. Dix is a better passer by far as Knecht averaged just 0.8 assists per game in his rookie season. However, Kncecht’s offensive abilities is where the connection comes into play. He averaged 9.1 points last season while shooting 46.1% overall and 37.6% from beyond the arc on 4.4 attempts. I think if Dix can take another step forward and land on the right team, we could see a similar level of production early in his career. He’s a remarkable three-point shooter and if his future team lets him shoot it like the Lakers let Knecht, he’ll be impactful at the next level.
Dix isn’t a huge athlete, but he’s quick enough to play at the next level. He can dunk it, but he’s not going to be a flashy dunker at the next level. However, there’s nothing that I have seen from his athleticism that I believe will be a red flag. He’s good enough to keep up with players at the professional level.
What’s the Vision?
Dix’s main appeal is his ability to score on offense. Last season, he finished 144th in the country with a 122.8 offensive rating, a 599% effective field goal percentage which was 90th overall, and a 61.1% true shooting percentage which finished 144th in college basketball. He averaged 14.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 50.7% from the floor and 42.2% from beyond the arc on 4.8 attempts per game, which was 88th in the nation. In conference play, his three-point shooting jumped to 43.4%. Inside the arc, he shot 57.2% and 65% at the rim. He can virtually do it all, he plays excellent on catch-and-shoot opportunities, he can create a shot for himself, he can carve to the paint to finish around the rim, and he can even flush a respectable dunk home. At the next level, I could see him fitting more into a true catch-and-shoot player if he lands on a team that has an excellent point guard. That being said, he’ll be able to fit into other plays as well as he has a great step-back jumper and shoots it well from the mid-range.
Dix has yet to tap into a full-on ball handling role, however, the potential is there to be impactful in creating offensive opportunities for others. He finished the season with a 14.6 assist rate and just an eight-turnover rate which was 40th in the country. In conference, that turnover rate dropped even lower to just 6.3 which was second in the Big Ten. The thing to keep in mind is, last year Iowa had Brock Harding. Harding had a remarkable 33.5 assist rate which was 38th in the country as he was averaging 5.3 assists per game. Dix served as a secondary ball handler along with Drew Thelwell and Payton Sandfort who averaged three assists and 2.9 assists per game respectively. Essentially, Iowa had Harding as the primary point guard and then Thelwell, Sandfort, and Dix who all played a role as additional ball handlers. Looking at the metrics, you could imagine if Dix was playing on a team with less diversity among guards that his assist rate could jump further.
On the defensive end, he’s improved as a rebounder as he finished last season with a 10.5 defensive rebounding percentage, which was a career high. He did take a step forward in generating steals. He averaged a career high as well with 0.9 steals per game. He racked up four against Nebraska when he dropped 31 points with seven rebounds. I believe that playing on Iowa actually restricted what he could show on defense. Underneath Fran McCaffery, the Hawkeyes never prioritized defense. Over the last three seasons, they never finished above 157th in defensive efficiency per KenPom. I’m excited for his opportunity at Creighton where Greg McDermott typically has them in the top 30 of defensive efficiency. Dix should have an opportunity this season to show off what he can do on the defensive end.
How Can It Break Down?
The largest question for Josh Dix’s NBA future is what else can he provide beyond the offensive production. There’s no doubt that he can score and he’ll be able to do so at the next level, but he’ll need to do more than that to secure himself in the 2026 NBA Draft. As I highlighted previously, he isn’t a prolific defender, but I believe that correlates to Iowa’s defensive schemes. If McDermott believes like I do that the defensive potential is there, we should see an up-tick. If we don’t, it’ll be a bit of an albatross on his profile heading into the draft.
From a playmaking perspective, the potential is there as I highlighted. Last season, he dished out eight assists against Penn State, however there were a ton of one or two assist games that aren’t going to cut it. If he wants to take himself out of just an offensive player conversation, he needs to emerge as a consistent threat on the playmaking end. He has great vision as he never finished with more than two turnovers in a game, so I believe this comes down to confidence and an opportunity in his team’s scheme.
What’s the Pathway?
The 2025-2026 season is going to be a make-or-break year for Josh Dix. He’s shown us what he can do on offense, but what else can he provide for an NBA team in the future. I believe he made the right choice transferring to Creighton where he’ll have a chance to show scouts and NBA teams what he can do on a team that will probably once again be in competition for a top-25 spot. There are a couple of areas that I want Dix to work on this coming season:
Playmaking – Iowa had multiple players that could handle the ball last season, but Creighton doesn’t have a star point guard. Ty Davis could fit that bill and they nabbed Nik Graves from Charlotte, but if they are relying on the sophomore to hold down point, that means that Dix has an opportunity to slide in as a true secondary option alongside Graves and transfer Blake Harper. I want Dix to take advantage of this opportunity and take a leap forward on facilitating the offense. He’s not going to play as an oversized point guard in the NBA, but he can emerge as a combo threat which was lift his draft stock going into 2026.
Defense – I highlighted that Dix hasn’t had an opportunity to show his true colors on the defensive end at Iowa. Now that he has landed at Creighton where there is an emphasis on defense, we should be able to see Dix have plenty of chances to show what he can do. With this expanded opportunity, I want him to show us that he can be more than just an offensive player at the next level. We know what he can do on the offensive end, but if he can show that he can be an effective defender at the professional level, his draft stock will soar.
At this point going into the 2025-2026 season, I would say that Dix slots in as a possible second round draft pick. That’s not guaranteed at this point. However, he is one of the best three-point shooting players that will be eligible in this upcoming draft pool. If he can take a step forward with his playmaking and defense, he’ll soar up the ranks because he’s already proved what he can do on offense.
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