JT Toppin Scouting Deepdive

JT Toppin caught the eyes of many scouts as a freshman at New Mexico. Now at Texas Tech, he's take more steps forward. What does Toppin's potential NBA career look like?

Jan 28, 2025

JT Toppin exploded onto the college basketball scene as a freshman at New Mexico. After rising as a starter known for his stout athleticism, he helped lead the Lobos to the eventual Mountain West Championship where they earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Following the season, Toppin transferred to Texas Tech and he’s only improved since walking on campus. Let’s dive into what Toppin’s future looks like in the NBA.

The Physical Profile

Looking at the physique of Toppin, he stands at 6’9 and weighs in at 225 pounds. One of his most impressive features is his wingspan, which is measured at 7’.5. His vertical was registered at 28.5” standing and 34” max during the NBA Draft Combine last year. Let’s compare him to a couple of current players in the NBA:

One player that comes to mind as a comparison is Jarred Vanderbilt of the Los Angeles Lakers. Vanderbilt is 6’8 and 214 pounds, so not too far off from Toppin. Defensively, I think Toppin is better already, but I like to draw the comparison on the offensive end. Vanderbilt doesn’t take many threes, rather he uses his skills in the paint to score. When I watch Toppin, both players use their bodies down low to finish around the rim. I believe that Toppin will be a better offensive weapon in the NBA than Vanderbilt, but play style wise I can envision a similar style of play.
Another player that comes to mind is Day’Ron Sharpe of the Brooklyn Nets. Sharpe is 6’9 and 265 pounds, so he’s a bit more of a brick wall down low compared to Toppin. There’s pros and cons because there’s no doubt that Toppin is a nimbler player on his feet compared to Sharpe, however, their style of play is similar. Sharpe primarily plays down low while being a monster on the boards. Neither player features much of an outside game at this point and I believe it’s reasonable that if Toppin were to be placed on an NBA team today, he’d feature a similar role.

Toppin is a highly athletic forward. He’s quick on his feet, he’s strong in the paint, and he blocks out at an astronomical rate that allows his to dominate on the glass. He’s not afraid to use his body, even if that comes with the risk of a foul. He’s lengthy which allows him to disrupt shots through blocks, tip passes down low and alter shots in ways that don’t appear in a box score. Thanks to his athleticism, he’s able to unlock shot opportunities down low where he’s a prolific finisher.

What’s the Vision?

Normally I start off the vision sections with offense, but Toppin’s highlights are his on the glass abilities. He’s one of the best rebounding forwards in all of college basketball. Toppin is currently ranked as the 10^th best offensive rebounder at 17.3% and 35^th best defensive rebounder at 26.1%. As a freshman he averaged 3.7 offensive rebounds per game and this season he’s nearly the same at 3.4 per game. Just this season, he’s had three games with 15 or more rebounds.

Looking at his offensive capabilities, Toppin is a prolific scorer in the paint. As a freshman, Toppin featured a 62.3% field goal percentage while attempting 8.6 shots per game. He’s taken a step back to 55.5% this season, however his shot attempts per game is up to 12.4 so the percentage regression is to be expected when you are shooting four more shots per game on average. I love his hook shot, he’s incredibly efficient with it and it’ll translate well at the next level.

It is worth mentioning the Toppin is capable of knocking down threes every now and then. He isn’t going to drain 50+ in a season, but he is 16-48 through a season and a half in his collegiate career. I would love to see him take another step forward to be able to elevate his game to the next level. If he could become consistent enough to be regarded as a threat outside, he could become a star as defenders will have to stretch to guard him on the perimeter rather than just locking him down in the paint. At this point, his biggest blocker is his confidence. You can tell when he shoots from outside that he’s not confident in his own shooting abilities.

On the defensive end, Toppin uses his wingspan to his advantage. He isn’t just a monster on the glass, but he alters shots as well. He isn’t going to rack up 3+ blocks a game, but there’s more to altering shots than just blocking. I love his persistence on defense, and he’s strong enough to bully opponents down low. Plus, he has reliable length that can disrupt the passing lanes as well, creating a lockdown environment down low.

How Can It Break Down?

Toppin’s shooting ability is by far the largest question mark on his sheet. I haven’t seen enough consistency from him, and I believe that stems from his confidence in his own abilities. When he shoots, his form seems robotic and unnatural. If he can’t find his own shot form that he’s comfortable with, he’ll never be able to take a step forward with his shooting capabilities. In my opinion, his development on a consistent shot to open up opportunities from mid-range or beyond the arc is going to be the make-or-break difference between whether Toppin will be a role player or a potential starter in the NBA. At this point, he’s a one-dimension scorer.

Toppin hasn’t shown much as a passer. He’s a primarily inside scoring forward that’s a menace on the glass, so he doesn’t have to be the most prolific passer. However, we’ve seen next to no examples of his ability to dump it off to teammates. For example, if he wants to take his game to a next level you can imagine that he will want to be able to dump it off to others when you are stuck in the paint or setting up a back door cut rather than forcing himself to take a bad shot. I believe that some of this stems from his impressive abilities to finish from inside, however, it’s going to get more difficult at the next level. Can he prove in games like he had against BYU where he shot 2-7 that he knows when to reel it in and set up his teammates by opening up more opportunities for them and his team.

What’s the Pathway?

Toppin elected to withdraw from the 2024 draft to head back to college with a chance to earn NIL and improve his draft stock. He’s done just that. He’s taken several steps forward while transferring to a tougher school and playing against some of the top players in the country.

Toppin is far from being a lottery pick, so as every prospect there is room for growth. Where would I like Toppin to expand his game to elevate his potential?

Shooting. I highlighted this in my “how can it break down” section, but I want to highlight it as my number one focus for Toppin. If Toppin wants to become a legitimate presence in the NBA, he must develop a reliable shot from outside of the paint. With his size, he could truly elevate his game to the next level by being able to knock down a 15+ footer.
Discipline. I’ve mentioned how Toppin is a prolific rebounder and a disruption on the defensive end, but he tends to rack up fouls. As a freshman, he was averaging 2.6 fouls per game, and he finished with 4+ fouls in nine games. He’s improved a bit this year as he’s averaging 2.3 fouls per game, however, he’s only averaging 24.5 minutes. On a 40-minute average that’s 3.7 fouls per game. He needs to improve on when to reel it in and how to control his body because if he keeps this same style of play in the NBA, he’ll be a walking foul machine as the NBA is much more physical than the collegiate level.

If Toppin elects to enter and stay within the 2025 NBA Draft, there is no doubt that his name will be called. There’s plenty of room for growth and perhaps he can find what he needs to develop at the professional level. However, if he elects to return to college one more year, I genuinely believe that he could develop enough to be one of the top 20 players in the 2026 draft. The decision is his, but Toppin will have a meaningful NBA career.

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