Michael Ajayi Scouting Deepdive
From junior college standout to WCC first-teamer, Michael Ajayi joins Gonzaga for his senior season with his sights set on the 2025 NBA Draft.
I live for mid-major basketball success stories. Nothing gets me going quite like seeing a player who dominated at the mid-major level go on to be a legitimate contributor at the professional level. I believe that Michael Ajayi will go on to be one of those players, and while he is no longer a mid-major prospect as he joins Gonzaga during their transition to the PAC-12, he’ll always be a Pepperdine product to me. That said, Ajayi is more than just your average mid-major success story, and today I want to break down why that is the case. Let’s look at what makes him a special player, what his role for Gonzaga will look like this season, and what he will have to do to hear his name called in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Player Profile:
Michael Ajayi is a 6’7” and 230lb senior wing from Kent, Washington. He attended Kentwood High School, and only played varsity basketball during his senior year, averaging 10.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. He was a late bloomer in high school, growing from 5’10” to 6’7” between his junior and senior seasons.
This late growth spurt and subsequent solid production was enough to garner attention from the coaching staff at Pierce College, a junior college in Lakewood, WA. This is where Ajayi would begin his collegiate career, and where he would take his first major leap as a player. After averaging 20.4 points and 11.3 rebounds per game for the Raiders, Ajayi would be named the 2022 Northwest Athletic Conference West Region’s Most Valuable Player.
Ajayi had proven he could play at the division one level and would use his elite junior college production to work his way into a roster spot at Pepperdine University in Malibu, California. He soon cemented himself not only as the best player for the Waves, but also as one of the best players in the West Coast Conference. He would average 17.2 points per game, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .9 steals, and .5 blocks on shooting splits of 46.7% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 70.9% from the free-throw line. This impressive stat line earned him a WCC First Team All-Conference spot but wasn’t good enough to lead Pepperdine to anything better than their 13-20 record. After the season, Ajayi decided to enter his name into the transfer portal in search of greener pastures and would eventually commit to Gonzaga and head coach Mark Few.
Interior Scoring:
Ajayi generates 37% of his field goal attempts at the rim, and he creates offense from close range in a myriad of ways. This theme of versatility is one that will be reoccurring throughout this write up, as I believe that this trait may be the most valuable one Ajayi possesses. He’s incredibly difficult to predict, and his all-around scoring acumen gives him more flexibility at all three offensive levels. That hypothesis reigns true for his at-the-rim scoring, as his ability to shoot from both beyond the arc and especially in the mid-range leaves him open at the hoop more often than not.
As you can see, the defense is forced to respect his shot from beyond the arc, allowing him to pick up downhill speed and apply rim pressure against limited resistance. While his three-level scoring does strengthen his ability to attack the basket, his athleticism and physical profile also supports his rim pressure. He has a quick first step and picks up a ton of speed when moving toward the rim and once he gets there, he’s able to use his impressive vertical pop to finish above and around the hoop.
He also has the handle necessary to generate rim pressure off-the-dribble in the half court, but what stands out the most to me in these situations is that he still manages to pick up a ton of downhill speed. It’s a controlled chaos as he barrels to the basket, and it’s his composed finishing that allows this to work on a regular basis. At times he can look off-balance or out of control on these plays, but he somehow manages to find the hoop and finish the play more often than not.
While Ajayi is an affective on-ball interior scorer, it could be argued that he’s at his best when he’s operating off the ball. He didn’t get a ton of these looks while playing for Pepperdine but will likely spend almost all of his time away from the ball with Gonzaga. Ryan Nembhard will be one of the best true point guards in the nation this year and is the perfect guy to set Ajayi up on cuts and dives to the rim. Because of that, I think this will be a huge part of his game going forward.
One place where Ajayi can truly excel going forward is in transition, and his fast break impact should be something he leans on as a professional trait. His ability to accelerate is amplified in the open court, as he easily beats opponents down the floor and applies rim pressure against an unorganized defense. Many similar players will struggle to finish once they get the ball as their increased speed leads to a lack of composure, but that can’t be said for Ajayi. He maintains his excellent finishing in the open court, and I think this will remain the case going forward.
Mid-Range Scoring:
Ajayi loves the mid-range, almost too much. I’m going to speak glowingly of his in-between game here, but realistically I would love for him to convert some of these attempts to three-pointers in the long run. That said, his mid-range jumper is pure, and it’s clearly where he feels the most comfortable. This is where I believe in him the most as an on-ball offensive creator, and where his mechanics look the most promising. All in all, even if a future program or organization forces him to limit his mid-range volume, I’m a big fan of how he processes the game from this range and believe that to be a positive indicator of his long-term outlook as an offensive piece.
When he doesn’t take it all the way to the rim on drives from the perimeter, he’s liable to throw up a floater from time-to-time. Again, he’s very good at maintaining offensive unpredictability, and a lot of that starts in the mid-range. He’s very good at determining when the interior defense is too much for him to handle, and quickly shifts to shots such as floaters and pull-ups to nullify the rim protector.
Ajayi loves his elbow jumpers and takes so many of them that he nearly sacrifices that unpredictability we’ve been talking about. That said, he still manages to create a ton of space on these attempts. He’s great at stopping on a dime before quickly getting into his shot motion, and despite him starting rather low when going up for his shot, he finishes with solid elevation. While he does attack the rim more often than he takes these shots, it’s clear that he’s constantly searching for opportunities to get these attempts up.
He’s also a big fan of the baseline, where he finds himself taking a ton of naturally occurring shots when he’s pushed away from the rim on his drives. You can see this in the second clip above, as he spins and jumps away from the hoop instead of towards it. Much like when he decides to go up for a floater, these attempts usually occur when Ajayi purposely avoids the interior defender. Similar to his elbow jump shots, he looks fluid and comfortable on these attempts, but I don’t think he actively looks for them in the same manner as he does his elbow jumpers. Overall, his mid-range game proves that he not only plays with purpose, but can also improvise if necessary.
Outside Shooting:
I do have some questions regarding Ajayi’s outside shooting, but for the most part he has proven to be an affective shot maker from beyond the arc throughout his career. He seems to change his shot motion and mechanics on a whim yet knocks down the shot no matter the method. He hasn’t shown many flashes of being a real off-the-dribble shooter from deep but has from mid-range. He doesn’t take a ton of shots from beyond the arc, around 2.5 attempts per game last season, but seemingly hasn’t been asked to increase his volume. While I do have those questions, none of them jump off the page at me as legitimate long-term concerns from a draft or professional standpoint.
One aspect of his outside shooting game that I have no questions about is his ability to knock down catch-and-shoot threes. This past season he was in the 98th percentile as a catch-and-shoot operative. Not only that, but he also clearly passes the eye test. He’s constantly moving off the ball in search of a better catch-and-shoot opportunity, and when he does receive the pass, he shows off that same fluid shot motion he possesses from mid-range. This trait is going to be incredibly important for him at Gonzaga, where he’s going to be spending almost all of his time operating away from the ball.
When Ajayi does decide to put up an outside attempt off-the-dribble it’s usually relatively simple and easily digestible. He doesn’t try to go beyond his means and seems to have a good understanding of what he is and isn’t capable of. Most of these attempts occur when the defender gives him too much space, allowing him to go through his entire shot motion, much like what you see in the clip above. As I mentioned, his mechanics can become somewhat strange on occasion, lowering his center of gravity before leaping vertically for his shot, doing his best impression of a coiled spring.
An unexpected talent of Ajayi is his ability to knock down threes in transition. I wrote earlier that he is a true weapon in the fast break, and this reigns true when he trails the play instead of getting ahead of it. He doesn’t see a ton of these looks but is eager to take advantage of them when they present themselves. I believe these transition threes bridge the gap between his catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble shooting, as he does technically receive a pass, yet is still in motion and may put the ball on the floor. Either way, he seems comfortable taking and making these shots.
Passing & Playmaking:
Ajayi is a solid passer with a good feel for the game, and while his 1.9 assists per game last season may not stand out as a strong indicator of playmaking success, I can assure you that he’s a capable playmaker. He simply wasn’t asked to do a ton of playmaking for others last season, instead being put in a position as the primary scoring option. This is likely a trend that will continue going forward (the lack of assist volume, not being the primary scoring option) as I believe he’ll act as an off-ball contributor from now on. That said, he can still be a strong secondary playmaker, which would be a legitimate swing skill for him from a draft perspective.
Assists like the two clips above are what the majority of his passing load looked like this past season. He often dumps the ball inside when he is met with too much resistance either on the perimeter or on the drive. While I don’t think he’ll have a ton of opportunities to recreate these looks going forward, they do show us how well he processes the game and how good of a decision maker he is on the fly. At this point, considering we know he won’t have much of a playmaking load at Gonzaga, it’s important to recognize what his mentality looks like from a playmaking perspective.
The clip above looks more like what I think most of his assists will look like in the future. He, at best, will be a secondary playmaker, and I think in many cases he won’t even have a secondary-level playmaking load. He will be tasked with scoring off the ball, playing defense, and grabbing boards, and if he can chip in some assists here and there that will be the cherry on top.
Defense:
I will speak on what I’ve seen from Ajayi as a defender, but there isn’t a ton of tape for him on this end of the floor (for me, at least). Not that I haven’t watched him play defense, more so that I don’t have a bunch of exciting blocks and steals to share with you. That said, I am a big fan of his outlook on this end of the floor and think it will be a major reason why he gets drafted at the end of this season. He’s a big, strong, and athletic wing with high-level basketball IQ who can defend multiple positions, which just so happens to be the most desired defensive archetype in all of professional basketball at the moment.
The clip above is a great example of what I saw the most of from Ajayi on this end of the floor. He’s great at staying in front of his matchup both on the perimeter and on the drive. He picks up a block here, but even when he doesn’t, he still makes an impact by keeping his body between his man and the basket. He’s a great lateral mover with solid length, making him a very affective perimeter defender while matching up against multiple different positions.
Rebounding:
Rebounding is by far Ajayi’s most impactful trait on the defensive end, and honestly one of his more important swing skills on the offensive end as well. He’s an incredible rebounder on the wing, averaging 9.9 rebounds per game this past season, 2.3 of which came on the offensive end. Now, while his rebounding average will likely drop as he moves to a higher level of the sport, he’s already proven to be well above average in this department for his position. I think this will translate to any level of the sport and is something I’m looking forward to monitoring this season.
There are a lot of great rebounders who aren’t great at converting on offensive boards. Ajayi isn’t one of them. He’s excellent at getting off the ground for easy layups once he grabs a board. In fact, he uses his length and vertical pop to grab a lot of rebounds relatively far from the hoop, pulling the interior defender away from the basket in the process. This opens up the paint and allows him way more room to operate once he comes up with the ball. I think he could be the second-best rebounder for Gonzaga this season (behind Graham Ike) and I predict that throughout the draft process, his rebounding will be a common talking point for his overall draft profile.
Summary:
Before I summarize Ajayi’s game, I want to go over any and everything that I deem to currently be a weakness of his game. It is important to remember that every player has weaknesses, and that the best players in the world are the best because they treat their flaws as areas in need of improvement. That being said, Ajayi has far fewer weaknesses than most collegiate prospects, which is another reason why I’m so high on his long-term outlook.
Ajayi needs to work on being a more willing interior scorer. He doesn’t like to challenge rim protectors or finish through contact, limiting how often he gets to the free-throw line.
While we’re on the topic, he's a decent free-throw shooter, but could definitely be better. I would like to see him hover closer to 80% than the 70% he sat at last season.
He needs to work on his off-the-dribble shooting from both the mid-range and beyond the arc. This past season he was in the 28th percentile when it came to off-the-dribble shooting, which isn’t promising to say the least.
I would like to see him convert some of his deeper mid-range attempts into threes this season. While his 47% from beyond the arc is very impressive, his 2.5 attempts per game is far below the volume he should be shooting at.
He tends to settle for difficult mid-range shots at times instead of kicking it back out and resetting the offense. I’m hoping this was a product of playing with a less talented supporting cast, and hope that this won’t be the case this season.
I still have questions regarding his handle. Sometimes he looks solid when putting the ball on the floor, mostly when attacking the rim. However, when he tries to do too much with the ball, he often faces turnover issues.
He can get sped up on the defensive end, resulting in unnecessary fouls. He averaged 2.5 fouls per game this past season, which isn’t horrible but can be improved upon.
He’s not spectacular as an on- or off-ball defender, but he’s above average in both categories. This isn’t a must, but I would like to see him take a leap in at least one of these two departments.
To summarize Michael Ajayi, he’s a player who can do just about everything on a basketball court. He’s not just out there playing to play, instead he actively thinks and processes the game as it presents itself. He’s a real three-level scorer on the offensive end with legitimate shooting upside from the mid-range and from beyond the arc. He’s still improving at all three levels, but I like the direction he’s heading as a scoring prospect. His impact off the ball allows him to fit seamlessly into just about any system, and he adds an extra offensive kick with his sneaky playmaking acumen. All in all, his offensive game is not only incredibly developed, but also leaves a ton of room for growth.
As a defender he sets a foundation with his physical profile and athletic abilities. He’s able to mold this foundation with his elite feel for the game and decision-making skills. Much like his offensive game, he’s a well-rounded contributor on this end of the floor, capable of defending guards and forward both on and off the ball. There’s a chance that his defensive upside ends up being his most valuable trait from a draft perspective, especially when you consider his elite rebounding.
This year at Gonzaga I’m not entirely sure what his offensive load will look like, but I am certain that he will be a guy who is impossible to keep off the floor. Even if he doesn’t offer a ton from a scoring perspective, which I doubt, he will find a way to make himself valuable. Ajayi is a player who I am confident will excel not only this season with the Zags, but also in the future whenever a professional organization adds him to the fold.