Milan Momcilovic Scouting Report
The former four-star and top 50 recruit Milan Momcilovic has embedded himself in Iowa State’s success over the past two seasons. Can he breakout in his junior season and soar up the NBA Draft Boards?
The former four-star and top 50 recruit Milan Momcilovic has embedded himself in Iowa State’s success over the past two seasons. The 6’8 forward has proven himself to being a legitimate NBA prospect with an ability to spread the floor and score from all positions on the court. After taking another step forward in his sophomore season, we could be looking at a complete breakout junior year where Momcilovic could soar up the NBA draft boards. What does his potential NBA career look like?
The Physical Profile
Milan Momcilovic stands at 6’8 and weighs 225 pounds. While his wingspan hasn’t been officially measured yet, it’s reasonable to guess it’s in the 6’11+ range. Let’s take a look at a player in the NBA currently that reminds me of Momcilovic:
One player that immediately comes to mind is Jaylen Wells of the Memphis Grizzlies. Wells stands at 6’8 and weighs 206 pounds, so very similar to Momcilovic. In his rookie season, he averaged 10.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 42.5% overall and 35.2% from three-point. These averages nearly mirror what Momcilovic has done in his first two seasons at Iowa State. Wells was drafted as a shooting specialist. While he isn’t necessarily just a one-way player, he was essentially drafted purely for his offensive capabilities. As we will discuss throughout this scouting report, Momcilovic’s main appeal for the NBA is his shooting capabilities, so at this point in his career you could imagine that he’d mirror Wells’ level of production.
Momcilovic isn’t the most athletic player on the court. He’s not going to be the quickest player on the court, and overall, he lacks strong verticality. However, he has developed a skillset in his game that doesn’t require superior athleticism to find himself successful. He’s nimble on the court, where he can create space for himself to knock down shots in the mid-range and from beyond the arc. Plus, throughout the offseason, he was worked on adding additional strength and muscle to his existing frame.
What’s the Vision?
Momcilovic’s offensive capabilities are his bread and butter when it comes to envisioning his future NBA career potential. Last season, he finished with a 115.9 offensive rating per KenPom which was 445th in the country. He shot 39.6% from beyond the arc, which was 233rd in the nation. His percentage dropped a bit in Big-12 play, down to 36.4% yet he was still 19th in the conference. He featured a 55% effective field goal percentage and a 57.4% true shooting percentage, which both dropped to 47.9% and 52.4% respectively once he finished all conference games. However, if we see these highlights below, you’ll see why his offensive ceiling is so high. I love his jumper, and it works on all positions on the court. He is already a strong catch-and-shoot player, but he can also use his quick feet work to change position and throw off the defender. Anytime you have a 6’8 player that can create offense for himself in the mid-range, you know that his skillset is going to be able to translate to the NBA. His fadeaway shots? Beautiful. His freshman season, he shot over 40% from the left elbow in the mid-range.
His playmaking is okay, but I think he has more potential than what he has shown us so far. He rarely turns the ball over as his 8.3 turnover rate in the Big 12 was 7th in the conference. Overall, his 10.6 turnover rate was 202nd in the country last season. He has shown that he has a strong basketball IQ and there have been glimpses of what could be an additional skill in his portfolio.
His rebounding abilities are again, just okay. He averaged 3.1 rebounds as a freshman and 3.3 last season. He doesn’t crash the boards on offense, primarily because he doesn’t play as a forward in the paint. He finished with just a 1.8% offensive rebounding percentage, but a much better 12.3% defensive rebounding percentage. It’s reasonable to understand that Momcilovic’s appeal isn’t going to be for a traditional forward in the four-spot, rather more as a traditional wing with additional height. He’s not going to be a go-to interior powerhouse at the next level.
How Can It Break Down?
Momcilovic is not a strong defender, in fact, I’d say it is the weakest part of his arsenal currently. He finished with just a 1.1% blocking percentage and a 0.8% stealing percentage last season. You can argue that it’s part of the team that he plays on, however, I don’t think that can cover it entirely. For the Cyclones, Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson were the defensive anchors, however, if Momcilovic wants to solidify his status as a legitimate prospect at the next level, then he needs to step it up on the defensive end where he’s virtually non-existent.
There’s one additional worry that I have and it’s the skew of his metrics between games in the non-conference part of Iowa State’s schedule and the games in the Big 12. As noted previously, most of his metrics fell between the two parts of their schedule, which isn’t unusual. However, they have dropped significantly, and they’ve happened back-to-back years now. In his freshman season, his three-point percentage fell from 41.6% against non-conference opponents to just 28.4%. Last season, it fell from 42.6% to 36.4%. In both seasons, his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentages both nose-dived as well. Iowa State is known to be a power school that doesn’t traditionally schedule hard non-conference games. Last season, the average KenPom ranking for their opponents was 166 (in 2024 it was 222). It’s important to note that he was hurt this past season for seven games in conference, and he still came back stronger than he did during his freshman season. It’s something to monitor during his junior year.
What’s the Pathway?
As you read this, you are probably thinking that Momcilovic is currently a bit of a mixed bag. That’d be a reasonable takeaway, however, I’m a believer in what he can do at the next level and so is his coaching staff. His offensive ceiling is so high that it outweighs some of the underlying questions in his additional skills. What that being said, there are a couple of areas that I want to see Momcilovic improve this season:
Defense – I highlighted how Momcilovic is a defensive question mark, but that doesn’t mean all is lost. He isn’t a true defensive liability, however, there is much more that he could do to improve himself for his future professional career. As a three-level threat scorer, if he can focus on crashing the boards harder when playing in the paint, it’d go a long way. He’s quick enough to keep up with defenders, so use that length to clog the lanes more and create fast-break opportunities. We talked with those inside the program, and they mentioned that improving Momcilovic’s defensive skill is one of the key developmental areas for the potential NBA prospect this season. The Cyclones have added additional support on offense, in which the belief is this will save him energy to play more upbeat and active defense. Coupled with his work in the gym during the offseason, they believe that this will be the season that he takes a huge step forward.
Playmaking – With Momcilovic being essentially a one-skilled player at this point, if he could bump his assist averages up to two or three per game, his draft stock would skyrocket. He is quick enough, and he’s shown a strong basketball IQ that makes me believe this isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Imagine that he drives to the paint, goes for an elbow fadeaway, but dishes it back out to a teammate for an open three. The raw talent for this skill set is there, he just needs to tap into it more to unlock more potential.
In my opinion, Momcilovic is flying completely under the radar in NBA draft conversations. He has the makeup up a proven model of an NBA player, and I know that his skillset will translate to the next level. Most boards have him listed as a second-round pick, but if he is able to take another step forward with his defense and playmaking, then I think we should be having early second round pick or even late first round conversations by the end of the 2026 college basketball season. However, without improvement, he’ll best serve as a role player for pure offensive purposes at the next level.