Risers and Fallers | December 2024
Who's soaring and who's falling in the month of December?
Welcome to Draftstack’s new monthly article series, Risers and Fallers!
Each month, our team will each select one riser, as well as one faller, for the previous 30-odd days. We hope you enjoy our first edition in the series!
Ethan Alexander
Riser: Adou Thiero
After two seasons with the Kentucky Wildcats, Adou Thiero decided to follow head coach John Calipari to Arkansas for his junior campaign. Thiero was a role player and defensive specialist during his time in Lexington, so going into this season very few evaluators expected him to take the leap that he has taken up to this point. He has been the Razorbacks’ best player through six games, averaging 18 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 3.2 steals, and .8 blocks per game on shooting splits of 65.1% from the field, 28.6% from beyond the arc, and 73.3% from the free-throw line. He has been thoroughly dominant on both ends of the floor and has been the lone point of consistency for an Arkansas team that has somewhat struggled to get out of the gates this season.
Thiero is a big bodied 6’8” and 220lb wing with elite athleticism, allowing him to be a nearly unstoppable force when attacking the hoop. He’s still working on his all-around shooting profile, struggling from beyond the arc this season after nearly tripling his volume from the perimeter. Despite his impressive growth as an offensive centerpiece, he still remains one of the most versatile defensive weapons in the country. He’s one of the few players in all of college basketball who can guard one through five at the college level, something that will at least somewhat translate to a professional landscape. Finally, he’s a young junior, turning 21 just a few weeks before draft day. For those reasons, Adou Thiero has been one of the biggest early season risers for the 2025 NBA Draft.
Faller: Kwame Evans Jr
Throughout his freshman season with Oregon, Kwame Evans Jr showed flashes of being a hyper-versatile wing/forward with fantastic size and an interesting skillset on both ends. After careful consideration, he decided to return to the Ducks for his sophomore season, which in hindsight looks to be a questionable decision to say the least. Through five games, Evans has gotten worse in almost every metric, even falling out of the starting lineup as head coach Dana Altman has shifted to Stanford transfer Brandon Angel. Through the first five games of the season, Evans is posting averages of 8.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1 assist, .6 blocks, and .2 steals per game on shooting splits of 45.5% from the field, 23.1% from the three-point line, and 61.5% from the charity stripe. So, what has led to Evans' sudden fall from grace to start this season?
It’s important to remember that much of Evans’ allure throughout his debut campaign surrounded occasional flashes that he had shown throughout the season. It was never based on what he was, but what he could be. Considering he has not only not lived up to his immediate potential, but has also seemingly gotten worse, it’s not shocking that he’s fallen on draft boards. It could be argued that Altman and company not prioritizing Evans in the Oregon offense from the get-go altered his mindset for the year, drastically affecting his overall output. However, if a player wants to make a professional leap, they must be able to adapt to the system they find themself playing in. Evans has not adapted, and as he gets older those flashes become less and less intriguing from a draft evaluation perspective. If he wants to avoid falling off draft boards altogether, he needs to alter his season’s trajectory, and quickly.
Jacob LeRea
Riser: Labaron Philon
My main issue with Labaron Philon heading into this season had less to do with Philon himself and more with the situation I thought he would be in. The Crimson Tide brought in a plethora of talent from high school and the portal while returning key pieces from last year’s Final Four run, making minutes scarce. Philon has risen above the circumstances, establishing himself as an essential starter for Nate Oats, skyrocketing up draft boards. Just by simply looking at the stats, you see he affects the game in all aspects (10.8 PPG - 4.7 APG - 4.0 RPG). While watching him, he plays with a certain flare and confidence most freshmen don’t possess. He puts pazazz on advanced reads, faking out defenders with his body and eyes. Philon has a deep bag of savvy finishes, showcasing body control and soft touch. He uses his speed-changing ability and bouncy ball handling to create proper angles downhill. Like all Freshmen, Philon has to put muscle on, but he’s crafty enough to figure out how to use his slim frame to his advantage. Expanding his game to beyond the arc is the next step in Philon’s offensive development. 25% from three isn’t going to cut it at the next level, especially as a lead guard. He has to make tweaks to his mechanics, especially his base as he tends to kick his legs out to the side. On the defensive end, he’s a competitor that attempts to generate turnovers through aggressive on-ball defense. Philon’s impressive campaign has already been rewarded with SEC Freshmen of the Week, and if he keeps it up, can reward him with a lottery selection. Our very own Roberto Araiza wrote more about Philon and why he’s an ideal combo guard in today’s game.
Faller: Jalil Bethea
Jalil Bethea finds himself on the opposite side of the combo guard stock spectrum than Labaron Philon. The Five Star has found himself struggling to see the court this season, averaging 12.2 minutes a match. Bethea has shown flashes in his limited minutes, but his ability to impact multiple aspects of the game is unclear, as shown by his Box Plus Minus of -2.6 (yikes). He’s averaging an inefficient 6.6 PPG, which can be attributed to his tendency to take outside shots rather than drive. Instead of opting to utilize his burst to get downhill, Bethea has settled for jumpers. In fact, he has more three-point attempts than two-point attempts on the season. There is a shortage of confidence when driving, possibly coming from him knowing he can get knocked around in the paint easily. This has not only hindered his scoring efficiency but also his ability to create for others. Being able to pass out of collapsing defenses is a necessity for guards today, especially since drive-and-kick systems are so common. With a total of 5 assists on the season, multiple zero-assist games, and a lack of advanced reads, his limited playmaking raises questions about his fit on the NBA level. There’s still upside in Bethea. His defense has been excellent on the floor, especially as a point-of-attack guy. He has an excellent steal percentage of 3.1%, showcasing his anticipation and coordination. Offensively he may just be more of an off-ball piece than a microwave scorer. Being more aggressive on the inside in his limited minutes can prevent a further slip for Bethea.
Roberto Araiza
Riser: Egor Demin
Demin was someone I was cautiously optimistic about coming into the season as someone who, at the very least, looked like a lottery prospect. His size paired with a decent foundation of ball-handling, passing, and shooting capabilities made it easy to see his upside even in the preseason if it all came together for him, but it was up in the air as to whether he’d play primarily in an on- or off-ball role, and moreover, it can sometimes take time for international players to adjust to college basketball and a new team in general. But Demin has been scorching hot straight out of the gate, showing that he is, in fact, the jumbo creator that his tools and fluid athleticism hinted he could be. Demin is currently on the trajectory of a top-five pick in the upcoming draft, full stop. And while his role in the NBA won’t be quite the same, I’d be remiss not to share that purely aesthetically, I can’t help but be reminded of a certain Argentinian wing as I watch him.
Faller: Drake Powell
Like Egor Demin, Drake Powell is someone I was cautiously optimistic about coming into the college basketball season, but that cautious optimism came down to his impressive physical attributes and motor. He has a strong frame, good foot speed, and is quite the springy athlete, exemplified by his two-handed block in his game against American University. But where he’s proficient as an athlete, he’s still behind in terms of skill—particularly on offense. Given his length and athletic tools, he has plenty of upside as a multi-positional defender and play-finisher on offense, but he isn’t where he needs to be as a creator to be considered a lottery prospect. If he fails to show signs that he’s capable of creating his own offense, it wouldn’t surprise me if he slips out of the first round (assuming he remains in the draft) or returns to school.
Sheldon Wohlman
Riser: Andrej Stojakovic
The son of three-time NBA All-Star Peja Stojakovic, Andrej, has been an early riser to start the college season. As Jaylon Tyson departed Cal for the 2024 NBA Draft, the Golden Bears brought in Andrej Stojakovic as a transfer from Stanford. With an increased role, Stojakovic has been nothing short of productive. The 6’7” wing has more than doubled his scoring output from his freshman campaign. Stojakovic’s volume as a scorer has been extremely impressive to start the year. Through the early stages, Stojakovic has been highly productive as a scorer inside the arc by winning in advantage situations. As his efficiency as a three-point shooter trends upward throughout the season, it’s very likely Stojakovic begins to garner serious first-round buzz for the 2025 NBA Draft.
Faller: Hunter Sallis
Sallis has been on NBA Draft radars for nearly half a decade. The former top 15 recruit began his collegiate career playing at Gonzaga. In limited minutes, Sallis would flash some of his scoring skill set, boasting a 60.0% two-point percentage in his two seasons with the Zags. The three-point shooting always lingered as a red flag both in the college game and as a serious NBA Draft prospect. His junior season at Wake Forest was a revelation however. Sallis, who connected on only 25.8% of his threes during his Gonzaga tenure, more than quadrupled his three-point volume and made an astounding 40.5% of his triples in his first season with the Demon Deacons. After choosing to return for his senior campaign, it appears Sallis is in danger of proving his junior year to be an outlier and not the norm. Despite carrying over similar volume from deep, Sallis has reverted to a 31.4% three-point shooter so far this season. The largest question for Sallis regarding a future NBA career stems from the reliability of his shot. The remainder of this college season could be make or break for the Wake Forest guard. Sallis’ finishing, improved decision-making and winning impact could all be moot points to NBA evaluators if they project him as a serious non-shooter at the next level.
Stuart Dyker
Riser: Joson Sanon
Sanon has been cooking! He has played six games so far for Arizona State, starting his first three and coming off the bench for the others. He has been an electric scorer off the bench, averaging 20.3 points while shooting 58.3% from the field and 57.1% from three on 5.6 attempts a game over his past three games. Even for the season he is shooting 51.7% from three on 4.8 attempts a game. He has been shooting with confidence and the results have been fantastic. Although his percentages are likely to drop as the season progresses, he is still on track to be an above average shooter and someone that can be relied upon to get the ball in the basket from anywhere on the floor. He has strides to make as a playmaker, totalling only 6 assists for the season so far while committing 8 turnovers, but the early signs have been encouraging. He is making an impact all over the floor, but is looking good on the defensive end. He is averaging 5 defensive rebounds over his past three games and has looked like a pesky defender in places, but it is on the offensive end that he will be driving up his draft stock. We know that the NBA values shooting a great deal, with the three-ball now being a prominent weapon in most teams’ offense, and if Sanon can continue the hot shooting streak he is on, he could be seeing his name make it’s way up to lottery-level discussions come June.
Faller: Michael Ruzic
Heading into this season, I was very high on Ruzic. Although he was still a very raw prospect on both ends of the floor, I had hoped we would see another step in his game as a continues to develop, however, things haven’t quite gone as well for him as they could have. For starters, he is now dealing with a thumb injury which will hold him out for a while. Although it’s not something that can be directly linked to a basketball skill, the less you are in the eyes of the draft world then the quicker you can be pushed down the conversation. Ruzic hasn’t played a game since 19 October so we haven’t seen him play in a while now, and will need to wait a while to see him again, but even when he has played, he has been less than impressive. In eight games so far for Badalona this season, Ruzic has underwhelmed on a number of fronts. For starters, he has shot the ball pretty poorly. He has only made four of 15 attempts from three, averaging 26.7% from deep, according to RealGM. He has also been an abysmal free throw shooter, only shooting 30% from the line. He also hasn’t been as dominant a rebounder as someone with height would suggest, so when he hasn’t been effective as a floor spacer or as a force down low, it’s hard to justify his draft stock, no matter how promising the positive flashes have been.
Simeon Marinov
Riser: Noa Essengue
The second-youngest prospect in the 2025 draft class has been an integral part of Ulm’s roster since the start of the season(averaging 23.5 minutes in all competitions), playing like he’s been a pro for years and seems to be in a great place to keep rising. Physically Essengue’s got an elite 9'3 ¼” standing reach and recovery speed, moves like a wing with the size of a center. The Frenchie shows a nice blend of ability to cut timely, put the ball on the deck and drive straight line, attack closeouts or simply bring the ball up the court well off a rebound. Despite his youth and fragile frame, he’s been getting to the free throw line pretty often, not shying away from contact.
Outside shooting is an area of his game all scouts will be keeping a close eye on throughout this season, as it seems to be his swing skill. I expect him to get more consistent from long range with time and more repetitions. His confidence shooting the ball to go along with a solid stroke from the free throw line and his 3-of-6 shooting against the Blazers in mid-October give me high hopes on this. Defensively (especially rebounding the ball and guarding bigger guys close to the basket) he should keep getting better with time and added strength as he grows into his thin frame, but his ability to switch and stay his ground against quicker opponents, making them uncomfortable thanks to his length or the knack for getting into passing lanes, will definitely translate right away at the next level.
Faller: Aday Mara
From being considered to be number one ranked incoming international freshman in the NCAA last season to a player who’s been playing few minutes, struggling to adjust to the different style of the game for UCLA, Mara showed us there could be a railway-thin line. The Spanish skilled center had a pretty rough freshman year which eventually derailed him from being in a position to get drafted.
New season, new hopes but same goals. Expected or not, currently Mara is nowhere to be found on the most reputable mock drafts. He has shown some glimpses of getting more acclimated to the NCAA basketball early in the season, but still has had pretty rough nights (zero-point games vs New Mexico and Idaho State). What Mara’s stock really needs is to prove he can be a reliable offensive threat in the conference games, play big minutes and be a rim protector on the other end. Mara has a high upside as a roller in pick and roll actions and a lob target, while his mid to long range shooting potential seems untappedin his NCAA adventure. Defensively he could be targeted in switches and isolations because of his footwork and softness. Obviously, you cannot find every day around a 7-foot-3 center that talented and skilled who understands the game well at that age. So, despite being in the Faller’s list, I would buy low now, cause if everything clicks for Mara, he could be in a way better position in a few months, if not -it’s a low-risk bet and he still stands at 7-foot-3 with a +4 wingspan.
Artur Freitas
Riser: Kon Knueppel
I know I am late to the Knueppel party. The buzz coming out of Duke's camp was always great about Kon, but I like to see it before I believe it. Nonetheless, these first games have confirmed the off-season vibes and Knueppel is looking like a solid 1st round pick.
Faller: Motiejus Krivas
During the portal season Arizona had Oumar Ballo transferring to Indiana, which left a hole at Center to be filled. I was expecting for Krivas to step up and be a focal point in the Wildcats' potent offense, which is yet to happen. I am still a believer in Krivas long term, but this isn't shaping up to be his breakout season.
Jordan Ennis
Riser: Tre Johnson
Johnson is an extremely efficient scorer at 27.2 points per 40 minutes and a .614 True shooting percentage. While it has seemed obvious he can’t play point guard at the next level his scoring and efficiency have to have him rising up boards.
Faller: DJ Wagner
Wagner has increased his minutes by eight per game, and while his efficiency has improved slightly the overall numbers have gone down. DJ just isn’t as physically dominant as he once was. He peaked early in athletic terms and his peers finally caught up. I do not think DJ is bad but the hopes for him being a first-rounder this year are falling. There is still time and 34.8% from three is up from his Kentucky average of 29.2% however that’s just not enough to make him a first-rounder in this class.
