Risers and Fallers | January 2025
Who's soaring and who's falling as of early January 2025?
Welcome to the second edition of Draftstack’s monthly Risers and Fallers! As a quick refresher, every month, our team of NBA draft analysts will select one riser and one faller for the previous few weeks. In case you missed it last month, you can check our first installment here.
Risers
Kasparas Jakucionis
Pegging Jakucionis as one of the outstanding risers throughout the month is a no-brainer. The Lithuanian guard put up impressive numbers against good opponents in December, scoring at least 20 points in Illinois’ games against top-50 teams (20-point game vs Northwestern, 22-point game vs Tennessee and another 21 points against Missouri). The Lithuanian guard keeps making his case for being a solid lottery pick stronger and stronger, and, why not?, for being one of the long-lasting European guards in the League.
The Lithuanian freshman’s ability to orchestrate the offense of a high-major was on full display during this last month after earning the role of the lead guard for Illinois. His shot-making and ability to create for himself have both been very good, showing that he can score from all three levels against quick and athletic opponents, but it’s his stroke from long range that has really stood out. Jakucionis hit 16 of his 35 shots (45.7%) during the month, including deep threes, stepbacks, off-the-dribble shots and spot-up looks, showing that he can be efficient both as a main or secondary ball-handler at the next level. Turning the ball over and defensive productivity seem to be two areas where he still has room for improvement going forward. His numbers in these two aspects most likely have been affected so far by his ample playing time and the hefty offensive load he has had to shoulder. Defensively, he often struggles staying in front of athletic opponents or defending the pick-and-roll ball-handler, showing average lateral speed, but at the same time his quick and active hands blended with his great size and work ethic should make up for that as he becomes more experienced.
Michael Rataj
Oregon State’s Michael Rataj has burst onto the scene this season, showcasing his unique two-way playstyle as the primary offensive option for the Beavers. The 6’9” and 220lb junior from Augsburg, Germany has seen substantial improvement in almost every statistical category this year after being handed the reins in OSU’s offense. He’s currently averaging 16.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1 block per game on shooting splits of 46.9% from the field, 35.1% from beyond the arc, and 87.5% from the free-throw line. Rataj is an aggressive three-level scorer who does most of his self-creation work in the paint and mid-post. He can also step out and hit the catch-and-shoot three, a threat that he often uses to open driving lanes and attack closeouts. He’s a super powerful player with good body control who scores in a myriad of ways near the rim, putting a ton of stress on defenses and drawing a lot of fouls in the process. He’s an above-average passer for a forward, especially when it comes to using his gravity in the post to find open teammates as they cut to the basket.
Defense is where Rataj may offer the biggest impact from a professional perspective. He’s a good athlete on a sturdy frame, allowing him to defend all frontcourt positions well. He is a good lateral mover for a forward, but what makes him a capable perimeter defender are his impressive defensive instincts and great hands. He’s not a great primary rim protector, but he’s a fantastic help side rim protector. All in all, he’s an all-around defensive weapon that can be utilized in a multitude of ways, allowing him to fit seamlessly into almost any defensive scheme. That defensive versatility alone suggests that he could make an impact at the professional level right away.
The only concerns I have with Rataj’s game at the moment are his efficiency and turnover issues. He’s an inconsistent scorer with a consistent shot volume, often resulting in poor-efficiency outings from both the floor and three-point line. When he’s at his best he looks like a legitimate first-round draft pick, and when he’s not he looks unprepared to play in a professional setting. I chalk up a lot of his turnovers to him getting used to playing a ball dominant role for his team this season, because he has shown flashes of being a solid decision maker. At the end of the day, Rataj is a player who I do believe is worth a draft pick this year, something I wouldn’t have predicted going into this season.
Maxime Raynaud
The Stanford big man has taken yet another leap: as of the time of writing, he is a top 10 scorer and rebounder in the nation. Raynaud has a well-rounded game and projects to be a modern Center with some playmaking chops, floor-spacing ability and shotmaking. He also brings rim protection and, despite not being a switching big man, he has enough mobility not to be a consistent target for offenses. As of right now, Raynaud may be playing himself into a first round pick.
Mario Saint-Supéry
6'4 PG Mario Saint-Supery was always a top prospect, perhaps overshadowed by a wealth of riches in a 2006 European generation that was loaded with first-tier perimeter generators: Egor Demin, Kasparas Jakucionis, Hugo González or Ben Saraf, to name but a few. He was also conspicously absent from big-stage U18 tournaments, bypassing the classic U18 L'Hospitalet Tournament and any of the ANGT qualifiers as he was already playing professional basketball in LEB Oro, Spain's second division, last year, and Spain's horrendous U18 FIBA Euro this past summer did not help his stock either. He started the season in ACB, playing for Basquet Manresa, and was getting playing time despite a somewhat pedestrian statistical output, and it looked like he was indeed a step behind fellow perimeter superstars Jakucionis, Demin and Saraf, who were tearing it up in college or for RatioPharm Ulm at the EuroCup level.
Fast-forward a couple of months, and Saint-Supery has seemingly taken a leap. His numbers in ACB play look significantly better: since the start of November, Saint-Supéry has upped his scoring from 4 to 14 points per game, with notable improvements in his assists, rebounds and steals too. Most importantly, this is not just a case of him getting more playing time: his minutes have indeed risen from 11 to 18 per game, but his scoring numbers have absolutely exploded, going from 12.5 points per 36 in his first couple of months to an eye-popping 27.7 points per 36, all while doubling his volume and percentage from 2-point range (from 6.2 attempts at 33% to 11.1 at 62.5%) and tripling his percentages from deep (from 14% to 44%), all while reducing his turnovers from 4.7 to 3.9 per 36 as well. This analysis matches the eye-test, with Saint-Supéry being able to more consistently get to the rim and apply his excellent athleticism in finishes in much the same way as he was able to do in youth categories in years' past.
As good as the seasons by other high-caliber 2006 European perimeter creators have been, it's not a given that any of Demin, Jakucionis or Saraf, all of whom are having excellent 24-25 seasons so far, would've been able to have a consistent stretch of play quite as good as what Mario Saint-Supery has produced through November and December at the ACB level. Saint-Supery's numbers will most likely regress at some point as the physical and mental grind of ACB basketball takes a toll (and as he begins featuring more prominently in teams' scouting reports), but NBA scouts and front offices now have a sample of excellent performances to fall back on and to know what the upside really looks like with him.
Adou Thiero
Adou Thiero has been one of the biggest draft risers in the early stages of the college basketball season. The former Kentucky Wildcat has transformed his role for coach Calipari in their first season in Arkansas. The Razorback wing has been an unstoppable athletic force in his junior season. Thiero’s production has more than doubled from his sophomore season going from 7.2 points in 21.4 minutes last year to 17.6 points in just 28.4 minutes (as of December 26th). As Thiero’s production has increased, so has his draft buzz.
Thiero’s impressive athletic tools show themselves to be a functional weapon for him to impact the game. The Arkansas wing has flashed intuitive cutting skills playing off of the basketball and the ability to finish either through or above traffic. Thiero is shooting 70.3% on his 91 two-point attempts so far this season. This marks a significant improvement from his sophomore campaign where he connected on 52.7% of his 110 total shots inside the arc. His athletic tools have been a real weapon on the defensive end of the floor as well. His ability to disrupt drives as a gap helper and acting as an event creator on defense has led to 28 stocks in 11 games so far this season.
Joson Sanon
by Jacob LeRea
Arizona State Basketball has been fun to watch.
Yup. That’s a sentence I never thought I would type out in 2024. But, the Sun Devils' anomaly of a season deserves nothing short of praise, heading into conference play with a 9-2 record. Part of their newfound success can be attributed to the dynamic Freshmen duo of Jayden Quaintance and Joson Sanon. Unfortunately, Quaintance isn’t eligible for the 2025 NBA Draft, propelling Sanon into the prospect spotlight. Sanon’s athleticism and refined body control make him a versatile scoring threat at all three levels. He’s an explosive player with bounce allowing him to slice through opponents and finish high above the rim. Although struggling on the left side and collapsing defenses inside, additional reps will make him more complete finishing-wise. The biggest draw in Sanon’s game for me is his shot creation ability. Sanon plays with a certain rhythm, enabling him to flow effortlessly into scoring moves, maintaining poise and confidence. The Massachusetts native has seemingly mastered the lost art of the mid-range, utilizing a variety of clever fakes and smooth pivots to hit difficult shots. So far, Sanon has been a dead eye from beyond the arc, shooting 50.9% off 5 threes a game. He particularly shines in catch-and-shoot situations, doing a good job relocating to the right spots. Sanon’s shot diet can improve but could result from him feeling the need to take more shots as one of the team’s go-to scorers.
Additionally, he’s a better playmaker than the statistics reflect. 1.5 APG doesn’t pop off the page, but he makes smart passes and occasionally flashes advanced reads that teammates don’t always convert. His defensive effort is there, but he isn’t the most aware with many lapses failing to rotate to the right spot. Sanon’s ability to capitalize off tough shots and extensive range gives him a malleable role in NBA offenses, able to play in a multitude of spots.
Derik Queen
by Jordan Ennis
The 6’10 Maryland big that is rapidly rising up draft boards is Derik Queen. With per 40 averages of 25 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 stocks on .640 True Shooting, Queen is the best big man in the draft. The skills he possesses make him one of the most fun players to watch in the draft.
Fallers
Rocco Zikarsky
Rocco Zikarsky of the Brisbane Bullets came into this NBL season with high expectations as one of the Next Stars. His first professional season with the Bullets in the 2023-24 season pointed to some real intrigue longterm as Zikarsky averaged 1.0 blocks per game in just 7.0 minutes of action. Zikarsky’s 7’2” frame and lengthy wingspan generated a ton of draft buzz going into the 2024-25 NBL Season. However, the first 17 games of this NBL season have not supported that excitement. Despite an increase in minutes, Zikarsky’s production has been somewhat lackluster.
Touch might be the biggest question for the NBL big man as he’s shooting just 53.4% from the field despite a majority of his attempts coming directly around the rim. In 11 of his 17 contests, Zikarsky has failed to record a block as his per game average has diminished drastically from his mark a year ago despite an uptick in minutes played. The 18-year old big still has true rim-oriented potential to grow into, but his season up to this point has him losing ground in NBA Draft circles.
Jalil Bethea
by Jordan Ennis
Jalil Bethea was supposed to be a Jared McCain style player who could come in and be instant offense off the NBA bench after his freshman year at Miami. Things have not worked out for the 6’5 guard. Shooting was supposed to be his strength and he hasn’t done that shooting only 30.3% from three point range. He’s only averaging 13 minutes per game and has only started one game this year. The One And Done dream is probably over but the fact that he is shooting 90% from the line means maybe his shooting will turn around.
Amari Williams
I was super high on Amari Williams coming into this season after he committed to the Kentucky Wildcats and head coach Mark Pope after a successful four-year career at Drexel. The 7’0” and 265lb center was touted as the best defensive piece in the portal this off-season, an elite rim protector who could anchor a nationally recognized defense. On the other end of the floor, he projected to be a solid paint presence with good soft touch shot making abilities and legitimate passing skills at the five. So far this season, he is averaging 9.8 points, 9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.6 blocks, and .4 steals on shooting splits of 55.1% from the field, no attempts from beyond the arc, and 61.5% from the charity stripe. At face value, him posting these averages while playing only 20.7 minutes per game is solid output, but when you watch him play something about him just doesn’t pass the eye test.
I was happy with Williams’ performance to start the season for the Wildcats. He looked fine on the offensive end, where his most valuable skill was quite obviously his ability to be an offensive hub within Kentucky’s dynamic three-point focused offense. Defensively, he did a good job of protecting the rim while gobbling up a ton of rebounds. However, his limitations were magnified in Kentucky’s big win over Duke, where Williams seriously struggled on offense and was just average on the defensive end. The team looked significantly better with him off the floor in that game, a trend that has become commonplace in many of the team’s bigger games this season. He was just okay in their loss to Clemson and win over Gonzaga and was nearly invisible in their win over Louisville and loss to Ohio State. His inability to be a consistent impact maker on both ends as a fifth-year senior tells me all I need to know about his professional outlook. Players like him have to have a high floor to succeed at the next level, and I’m just not convinced he has what it takes to consistently impact winning basketball at higher levels of the sport.
For Williams to correct his negative trajectory he’s going to have to show more flashes on the offensive end while remaining focused on defense. His motor has been horrendous at points this season, which is something he cannot have happen if he wants to make a professional leap. He also needs to start hitting his free-throws, something that has seriously hindered Kentucky on multiple occasions this season. As of today, I don’t have him anywhere near my draft board, whereas I had him just outside of the second round at the beginning of the season. I don’t see that changing anytime soon either.
Drake Powell
by Jacob LeRea
One of the Five-Star prospects I was weary of heading into this season was Drake Powell. The young wing was a projected lottery selection but has fallen short of those standards. Now, Powell hasn’t been bad by any means — just disappointing. He’s had some great stretches throughout the season against competitive teams such as Michigan State, Dayton, and UCLA. However, he’s had to take on a different role for this North Carolina team and reshape his game due to their lack of size and surplus of guards/wings. His struggle with adjusting to a new role is concerning, especially in an NBA where versatility is key. What makes it even more frustrating is Powell flashes his potential time and time again when he embraces a glue guy-type role. Using his leaping ability and extraordinary length, he’s made monster blocks. As a point-of-attack guy, he’s been relatively successful, being one of Hubert Davis’s go-to on-ball defenders. Powell generates deflections with the previously mentioned length while being able to recover effectively off screens. He’s had a few games where it felt like he chased and snagged every board possible.
Yet, Powell finds himself getting passive and reserved during games. He’ll pass up open threes despite shooting the rock well this year (42.3% from 3), disrupting the flow of UNC’s offense. When he puts the ball on the ground, he doesn't dribble with confidence and hesitates to make moves. Powell has the 3&D traits front offices look for in a wing, but a player who provides little to no value on the court when he isn’t locking down the other team’s best player won’t be worth a lottery, nonetheless a first round selection.
Dame Sarr
A former teammate of college basketball star Jakucionis’ from their time playing on FC Barcelona’s youth squads, Sarr decided to take a different path than the Lithuanian crafty guard after his solid showing with the U18 team of Italy in the past summer. Reportedly, Sarr had received multiple offers from high-major schools and had a few other options to continue his career, but eventually decided to stay with Barcelona and fight for a spot on the men’s team. On paper, it seems to be a tall order for an 18-year-old given the usually complicated Barça team, stacked with high-level, experienced domestic and foreign players and known for its high pressure due to the club’s evergreen championship aspirations.
So far this season, Sarr participated in six of the first thirteen games of Barca in the domestic Liga Endesa playing around eight minutes, while in the Euroleague he played in eight games, averaging four minutes of playing time. Most of them were so-called garbage minutes, so it’s difficult for us to make any deep evaluations out of a few minutes here and there. A tall and lengthy wing with some two-way potential, Sarr’s calling card has been his shooting ability but, at the same time, game-wise it doesn’t seem like he’s improved his game much recently. His dribble-drive game and creativity off the bounce need improvement. Obviously, it’s a great learning experience for him to play at such a young age alongside some of the great European players and some former NBA players, but it’s still pretty questionable whether sporadic minutes for the men’s team would put him in a better position to get drafted after this season than if he was playing for an NCAA school or having a bigger role on a lower-ranked European team. It's hard for me to expect the athletic Italian swingman to see a significant increase in his playing time down the road in an up-and-down season for FC Barcelona. Realistically, I’d say he would need at least another year to promote himself better, unless he puts up a string of efficient performances in the second part of this season.
Kwame Evans
It’s always good to give time to freshmen and sophomores. However, it is now the end of December, and Evans is yet to be a starter for the Oregon Ducks and has not cracked the top 20 in minutes since the 8th of November. I was expecting Kwame to break out — as of right now, it looks like I was wrong and Evans is shaping up to be a 2026 Draft prospect.
Great call on rataj! Now it’s a matter of scouts noticing