Steve Settle III Scouting Deepdive
Steve Settle III has been catching NBA teams' attention with strong pre-draft showings. A 6'10 forward with strong three point shooting, what does his potential career look like?
Every NBA Draft there is a player who not many know, but will make an impact at the next level. This season, that player could be Steven Settle III. After spending his last two seasons at Temple, Settle has been starting to catch the eyes of several NBA teams during his pre-draft workouts. The question is, what does an NBA career look like for the 6’10 forward? Let’s dive in.
The Physical Profile
Steve Settle III measures at 6’10 and weighs in at 192 pounds. Settle has a tall and skinny build relative to others of similar stature, which in the NBA is a bit unusually for his position. This isn’t a bad thing by any means, but it puts him in a taller 3&D role rather than a traditional power forward that many at his height would primarily play as in the NBA. A couple of players that come to mind as a comparison are:
Zaccharie Risacher of the Atlanta Hawks. Risacher is a bit shorter at 6’8, but he weighs in at 200 pounds providing a somewhat similar physique to Settle. Risacher had a successful rookie season where he finished averaging 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Risacher no doubt had a more productive first year than what Settle will probably have, but the similarities in how they play can give you some insight into what Settle’s role could look like. Risacher shot 45.8% overall and 35.5% from deep on 4.6 attempts per game. Settle is going to be a catch-and-shoot player as a team probably isn’t going to let him run plays at first outside of that, but he’s a strong three point shooter. Those shooting percentages should be a reasonable milestone for Settle to use in year one. Risacher isn’t as strong as a defender as Settle, so imagine taking Risacher and increasing his defensive skills, while slighting decreasing his offensive contributions and you realistically can have what I imagine for Settle in the NBA.
Noah Clowney of the Brooklyn Nets is another player I see some similarities in. Clowney finished averaging 9.1 points and 3.9 rebounds as a 6’9 forward this past season. He shot 35.8% overall and 33.3% from deep on 5.7 attempts per game. From what we’ve seen from Settle in college, I believe he is a better playmaker and there is no doubt that he’s more of a threat from the free throw line than Clowney’s just 1.7 attempts per game. However, it’s Clowney’s role on the Nets that could be similar to what we see from Settle. Clowney plays a complimentary role on the Nets’ offense where if he could tick up that three point percentage he could become even more valuable. For Settle, if he can average 35%+ from deep on at least three to five attempts per game, he’ll carve out a meaningful career.
Settle features some natural quickness, which when combined with his length can help him finish strong around the rim. He’s not going to win a dunk contest, but he does have flashes with his verticality that allows him to flush one home. For 6’10, he moves well and is quick enough to help support his role as a tall 3&D.
What’s the Vision?
What stands out the most for Settle? It’s his shooting capabilities. Settle averaged 3.6 attempts per game last season from beyond the arc while knocking down 41.6%. Overall, he had a 56.6% effective field goal percentage per KenPom which placed him at 220th nationally. His true shooting percentage was even higher at 61.2% which ranked him 139th by the end of the season. From inside the arc, he finished with a strong 52.5% rate on 134 attempts, while also featuring a 73.6% success rate from the line on a career high 144 attempts. His free throw rate finished at 59.3 which placed him at 60th in the nation by the end of the season. His form and shooting capabilities are going to allow him to carve out a professional career at the next level.
Settle actually has some underrated play making capabilities as well. Offensively, his basketball IQ shows through as he typically takes reasonable shots and doesn’t force plays that aren’t there. He does the same while distributing the ball as well. Last season, he featured a 9.9 assist rate with an 11.5 turnover rate. His turnover rate placed him at 306th in the country, which averaged out with a 1.7 assist to 1.1 turnover ratio by the end of the season. He’s not going to average three or four assists in the NBA, but he is strong enough to help create ball movement and limit turnovers on the offensive end.
On the defensive end, Settle isn’t going to be a top shot blocker in the league, but he has always been disruptive which is good enough for him to see time in a regular NBA rotation. He featured a three percent block percentage last season, which placed him at 466th in the country. For a forward position and one that’s not going to feature him in the paint as much as his counterparts, his blocking abilities are impressive. He also featured a 1.8% steal rate which is strong enough as a 6’10 forward and I believe he could increase even more thanks to his wingspan. Over the last twelve games of the season he averaged 1.4 steals per game. Rebounding wise, he led the Owls last season with 6.2 per game and he never averaged less than five throughout his career. He had four double-doubles last season, but Temple ran a smaller lineup which allowed Settle to emerge as a primary rebounder. In the NBA, Settle is not going to be a team’s primary rebounding player so you can imagine there will be some regression here.
How Can it Break Down?
Settle is primarily going to be a catch and shoot 3&D, which is perfectly fine, however he isn’t going to produce much offensively outside of that. That’s my number one concern for Settle’s career. Can he produce enough outside of his shooting skills to help him carve out a role that can protect him during slumps? If he’s not knocking down shots, can he survive a drought? It’s worth calling out that Temple had a strong offensive presence with Jamal Mashburn Jr. last season. He averaged over 22 points per game, so virtually every possession on offense was running through him and Settle still managed to score 12.6 point per game. He also served as their primary rebounder, so on Temple even if he was struggling to score in one game he was able to pick up the slack on the defensive end. However, in the NBA I’m worried that his rebounding will take a dip as he’s just 192 pounds compared to other players at his same height that are at least 230-250 pounds. Can he compete on the glass to help round out his skillset?
Where his career could break down is if he becomes a one-skilled player for his team. The question is what are some other ways that he can provide meaningful roles for his organization?
What’s the Pathway?
While at Temple, Settle served as a second or third scoring option as Jamal Mashburn Jr. was the primary driver of the Owl’s offense. Settle will play a similar complimentary role at the next level as more of a catch-and-shoot player with above-average defensive capabilities. His age works against him a bit as he is already 24 years old so he’s not going to be able to be a long-term development prospect. However, there are a couple of areas that I would like to see Settle improve on to bolster his potential career:
Playmaking – Imagine what Settle could unlock if he could bolster his playmaking skills more? He’s already solid for a forward, but he has the quickness on his feet to take another step forward. I’m not looking for him to be a regular ball handler, but he could use his basketball IQ to his advantage to help open up opportunities for his teammates. I see this potentially developing for him if he lands on a team with solid ball-movement in the offense. Say Settle catches the ball outside for a three, takes a couple steps in and skip passes to an open teammate. I believe the skill set is there, it just wasn’t needed at Temple and didn’t fit into their team’s playbook.
Aggressiveness – I want to see Settle get more aggressive on offense. He’s a strong shooter and he’s proficient from the free throw line. While I’ve mentioned several times that he’ll be primarily a catch-and-shoot player, if he works to become more aggressive on offense he can open up endless possibilities. It’ll open up playmaking, he can get to the foul line more, and prolong his career. This development will depend on the team that he ultimate ends up on, however, if he lands on a two-way contract he should take advantage of time in the G-League to work on this.
Steve Settle isn’t going to make the first round, but he could be a solid sleeper pick in the second round. A team like the Cavaliers that has already brought him in for a pre-draft workout could realistically nab him with one of their later picks in the 49th or 58th spot. You can imagine that he provides a meaningful role as a bench player in the rotation that can come in a knock down a couple of shots on catch-and-shooting opportunities to averaged six or eight points and a couple of rebounds per game.