Risers and Fallers | February 2025
Who's soaring and who's falling as of early February2025?
Welcome to the second edition of Draftstack’s monthly Risers and Fallers! As a quick refresher, every month, our team of NBA draft analysts will select one riser and one faller for the previous few weeks. In case you missed it last month, you can check our last installment here.
Risers
Kylan Boswell
By Ethan Alexander
When Kylan Boswell committed to Ariona out of high school, many believed that the five-star recruit wouldn’t spend more than one or two years in college before making the NBA leap. He cemented himself as a top 25 player in the class of 2022 during his time with Arizona Compass Prep, and chose to attend Arizona over programs like Kansas, Auburn, UCLA and many more. However, after a freshman season where he was stuck at the back of Arizona’s rotation and an average sophomore campaign, Boswell would enter his name into the transfer portal, eventually committing to the Illinois Fighting Illini and head coach Brad Underwood. Today, 20 games into his junior season, Boswell is slowly starting to look more like the player many thought he could be when he stepped foot on Arizona’s campus. A strong, defensive minded glue guy; if it weren’t for efficiency issues that have plagued him throughout his entire collegiate career, he could potentially be a high second-round pick as soon as this draft. That said, I have really liked what I’ve seen from Boswell this season, and if he addresses his poor shooting splits, I’d feel comfortable adding him to my rotation if I were in an NBA front office.
At face value his stats are solid for being the third or fourth option for the Illini. He’s posting averages of 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and .2 blocks per game on the season. The issues arise when you look at his shooting splits: 37.6% from the field, 25% from beyond the arc, and 78.8% from the free-throw line. Obviously, those aren’t the numbers you’d expect from a potential draft pick, but I’m a firm believer that they don’t tell the whole story. He’s an excellent perimeter defender, an excellent rebounding guard, and a solid secondary playmaker and initiator. When he’s sharing the floor with Kasparas Jakucionis he’s able to play second-fiddle on the offensive end, playing within the flow of the offense and doing all the little things necessary for Illinois to succeed. His struggles tend to rear their head when he’s asked to be a primary option when members of the starting unit are moved to the bench. That’s not something that will be asked of him at the next level, and I’m of the opinion that if he knows his role as a defense-first secondary or even tertiary playmaker, he can make a positive impact.
I’m not arguing for Boswell to be a first-round pick, or even a high second-round pick, but if he were picked near the end of the second-round I don’t think that would be a bad move. What I am arguing is that he has undeniably been a riser this season, a guy who went from being a non-factor in draft conversations to being a potential role player at the professional level. If he manages to improve his efficiency throughout the remainder of this season, I really could see him making a second-round push. If he doesn’t, I expect him to be one of the more impactful guards in the country for his senior season. Either way, I think his outlook is far more positive than it was when he decided to part ways with Arizona.
Rob Wright III
By Mikel Obi
The guy can hoop. Flat out. Although he smoked for his position, he's a very quick and crafty guard who can get to the rim, finish through traffic, and it's also a fairly good shooter. Wright's ability as guard propel him in pick-and-roll situations, due to his ability to attack the rim and change his speed at ease. Rob was shooting the 3-ball well earlier, this season the consistency has dwindled down in conference play. However, you can see the touch is still there, as he's shooting an impressive 87.9% from the charity stripe. Could still be a two-way player, but he's definitely not a player that is worth taking a late first round pick on if things start to go his way the rest of this season.
Miles Byrd
By Roberto Araiza
The argument for SDSU’s Miles Byrd as a first-round pick, if not a borderline lottery pick, is relatively straightforward: he brings good wing length at 6’7" with a reported 7’ wingspan, is averaging nearly 3.5 stocks per game with elite defensive feel, and is showing promising indicators as a three-point shooter. With that in mind, though, Byrd has also shown some interesting passing chops and the ability to put the ball on the floor and find non-three-point shots. If teams are convinced that Byrd can develop those ball skills even more at the next level while maintaining efficient three-point shooting, he’ll be selected higher than expected on draft night.
VJ Edgecombe
By Jordan Ennis
The 19-year-old 6’5” Bahamian Combo Guard playing Baylor is the best athlete in the class. His per-40 averages of 18.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks are very nice. The 2.7 turnovers aren’t perfect but aren’t a huge red flag yet, and he’s even raised his three percentage to 35%. Edgecomb is going to have some incredible highlights but he also could become the best shooting guard in the league.
Hugo Gonzalez
By Simeon Marinov
A standout at numerous youth competitions for Real Madrid and Spanish national team throughout the past several seasons, Hugo Gonzalez was destined to get a chance to play for the men’s team of Los Blancos and he hasn’t disappointed us. Basically,this is his third season as a pro (played 14 games in total in the previous two season in the domestic league and six games in Euroleague), being a constant part of the squad.
Gonzalez had a pretty productive month of January, recording new career-highs in points and minutes in the Euroleague (ten points against the Greek powerhouse Olympiakos and 17 minutes against Bayern Munich). In general, he keeps earning very good playing time for his age given the levels he plays atand the caliber of his team (the best clubs’ competition in Europe, Euroleague and best domestic league, Liga Endesa).The role on the team should help NBA scouts to get a good feel on how his game would translate at the next stage as it might be pretty similar to the projected one, he would likely get in the League.
In a loaded with stars team of Real Madrid Hugo Gonzalez has a very small margin for error which could be extremely stressful for one youngster. A legit 6-foot-6, the Spanish swingman will space the floor well, be a good cutter, bring energy and a lot of effort on both ends of the court, having solid two-way potential. Creativity off the dribble is one of the definite areas for improvement, while his 3-point stroke seems to enjoy a slight uptick. If he could turn into more than an average outside shooter with time, then his stock would definitely improve.
Fallers
Dame Sarr
By Simeon Marinov
The talented Italian wing seems still being in a non-favorable position to attack a good positioning in the upcoming NBA Draft. Throughout the month of January, he played only two minutes for FC Barcelona in an Euroleague game. There were several reports saying that the lengthy and tall athlete was about to get transferred to the Italian sensation, Trapani Sharks. However, such move eventually didn’t happen and Sarr stays with FC Barcelona.
Realistically I’d say he would need at least another year to promote himself better, if he doesn’t put up a string of efficient performances in the second part of this season though. Despite all that the NBA scouts know very well how hard is to crack the rotation of Barcelona and Real Madrid for a young player at his age, so there could definitely be given tolerance if the intel on him is very good and he does great in scrimmages/workouts down the road.
Michael Ajayi
By Ethan Alexander
The transfer portal has been a killer this season for promising mid-major talent. One of those victims is Michael Ajayi, who went from being one of the best mid-major players in the country last year for Pepperdine to looking like an average off-the-bench role player for Gonzaga this year. He has gotten worse in literally every metric this season other than free-throw percentage. He went from being an athletic three-and-d wing who was good at just about every aspect of the game, to looking like he’s only good for guarding opposing wings for limited stints. Going into the season I had him as a potential second-round pick, and now I’m not even sure if he’ll get picked up as an undrafted free agent. So, what happened to alter his path so dramatically?
First, let’s compare Ajayi’s stats from last season to this one. As the star player for Pepperdine, he posted averages of 17.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .9 steals, and .5 blocks per game on splits of 46.7% from the field, 47% from beyond the arc, and 70.9% from the free-throw line. This season he’s averaging 6.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1 assist, .8 steals, and .4 blocks per game on splits of 42.2% from the field, 20% from the three-point line, and 73.3% from the charity stripe. His minutes have decreased from 34.7 minutes per game to 19.2 and his shot volume is less than half of what it was last season. He’s been solid on the defensive end, something that I do think will translate to the NBA. He’s an athletic wing with good size and instincts who puts a lot of effort into his defensive game. However, other than that I’m not sure there’s one thing he’d be able to contribute to an NBA rotation.
Obviously, Gonzaga was never going to ask Ajayi to carry the offensive load that he shouldered for Pepperdine. I’d be shocked if anyone expected him to average almost twenty points a night for the Bulldogs. That being said, I didn’t expect him to look utterly pedestrian on the offensive end and I didn’t expect him to lose the ability to shoot the three. He has seemingly lost all confidence as a scorer, now being a total non-factor on almost every one of Gonzaga’s offensive possessions. When a volume scorer enters a situation where less is asked of them from a volume perspective, you usually see them improve from an efficiency standpoint. That has not been the case for Ajayi, who has gotten significantly less efficient from both the field and from three. Him not being able to hold his own as an offensive contributor in the WCC tells me all I need to know about his ability to do so in the NBA. That’s a sad reality considering I was a big fan of his coming into this season.
Danny Wolf
By Mikel Obi
Wolf has started off 2025 with mixed results. Consistency was there at the start of the month, but he's been on a bit of a cold streak lately. Can't find consistency with his outside shot, his touch around the rim in recent games has been a cause of concern. When he's not able to attack open lanes to either off pick and roll situations, his game can sometimes be a little bit too predictable. This was especially prevalent in his game against Penn State, where he consistently backed down into his defender in the paint and spin, in order to finish around the basket. His touch didn't look great, and his lack of athleticism in his game makes it more concerning.
Egor Demin
By Jordan Ennis
The 19-year-old 6’8 Russian point forward playing at BYU started off hot. However, the finishing concerns from his past finally showed up after the first couple of games and that has made it harder for him. Egor isn’t a bad player, with per 40 averages of 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 8.2 assists he’s struggled to be efficient with only a .531 True Shooting. The shooting of 29% from three is worrisome enough and the free throw indicators aren’t great at just 67’7%. Egor needs to get stronger if he wants to beat Josh Giddey comparisons.
Derik Queen
By Roberto Araiza
Derik Queen will prove to be one of my most difficult evaluations this cycle. His offensive production, for the most part, has been incredibly positive this season, with his 25-point, 6-rebound, 4-assist game against a ranked Illinois team coming to mind first. But if he’s to follow the mold of a big like Alperen Sengun at the next level, for example, then it’ll take a specific situation and team structure for it to work. Queen’s defense has been highly questionable to outright bad in his worst moments, and I worry that his offense—and specifically his shooting—in the NBA won’t be at the level it needs to be for a team to want to build around him.